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Mr. Rabah Arezki and Mr. Akito Matsumoto

Abstract

A survey of the complex and intertwined set of forces behind the various commodity markets and the interplay between these markets and the global economy. Summarizes a rich set of facts combined with in-depth analyses distillated in a nontechnical manner. Includes discussion of structural trends behind commodities markets, their future implications, and policy implications.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The pace of recovery has disappointed in recent years, and downside risks have increased, including from heightened geopolitical tensions. These increased risks make it a priority to raise actual and potential growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also provide support to demand and help boost potential output. And in advanced economies as well as emerging and developing economies there is a general, urgent need for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable. The four individual chapters examine the overall global outlook, the prospects for individual countries and regions, the benefits of increased public infrastructure investment in terms of raising output, and the extent to which global imbalances have narrowed significantly since their peak in 2006.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The pace of recovery has disappointed in recent years, and downside risks have increased, including from heightened geopolitical tensions. These increased risks make it a priority to raise actual and potential growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also provide support to demand and help boost potential output. And in advanced economies as well as emerging and developing economies there is a general, urgent need for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable. The four individual chapters examine the overall global outlook, the prospects for individual countries and regions, the benefits of increased public infrastructure investment in terms of raising output, and the extent to which global imbalances have narrowed significantly since their peak in 2006.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The pace of recovery has disappointed in recent years, and downside risks have increased, including from heightened geopolitical tensions. These increased risks make it a priority to raise actual and potential growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also provide support to demand and help boost potential output. And in advanced economies as well as emerging and developing economies there is a general, urgent need for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable. The four individual chapters examine the overall global outlook, the prospects for individual countries and regions, the benefits of increased public infrastructure investment in terms of raising output, and the extent to which global imbalances have narrowed significantly since their peak in 2006.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Le rythme de la reprise déçoit depuis plusieurs années et les risques baissiers se sont intensifiés, notamment en raison de la montée des tensions géopolitiques. Du fait de ces risques accrus, l'augmentation de la croissance réelle et potentielle constitue une priorité. Dans un certain nombre de pays, une augmentation des investissements dans les infrastructures publiques pourrait également contribuer à appuyer la demande et à renforcer la production potentielle. Dans les pays avancés ainsi que dans les pays émergents ou en développement, il est urgent dans l'ensemble de procéder à des réformes structurelles pour renforcer le potentiel de croissance ou rendre la croissance plus durable. Les quatre chapitres abordent les perspectives globales pour l'économie mondiale, celles des différents pays et régions, les effets de l'augmentation de l'investissement dans les infrastructures publiques sur la hausse de la production, et la réduction considérable des déséquilibres mondiaux depuis le pic de 2006.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

El ritmo de la recuperación ha desilusionado en los últimos años, y los riesgos a la baja se han agudizado, entre ellos el derivado de las mayores tensiones geopolíticas. Este agravamiento de los riesgos destaca la necesidad de priorizar el aumento del crecimiento efectivo y potencial. En varias economías, un aumento de la inversión en infraestructura pública también puede respaldar la demanda y ayudar a estimular el producto potencial. Y tanto en las economías avanzadas como en las emergentes y en desarrollo existe una necesidad general y urgente de reformas estructurales para afianzar el crecimiento potencial o para lograr que el crecimiento sea más sostenible. En los cuatro capítulos del informe se examinan las perspectivas generales de la economía, el panorama futuro de países y regiones individuales, las ventajas de una mayor inversión en infraestructura pública para incrementar el producto, y el grado en que los desequilibrios mundiales se han reducido con respecto al máximo que registraron en 2006.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The pace of recovery has disappointed in recent years, and downside risks have increased, including from heightened geopolitical tensions. These increased risks make it a priority to raise actual and potential growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also provide support to demand and help boost potential output. And in advanced economies as well as emerging and developing economies there is a general, urgent need for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable. The four individual chapters examine the overall global outlook, the prospects for individual countries and regions, the benefits of increased public infrastructure investment in terms of raising output, and the extent to which global imbalances have narrowed significantly since their peak in 2006.

Brenton Goldsworthy and Ms. Daria V Zakharova
Oil revenue plays a central role in Russia's economic development. Thus, the recent decline in oil production and investment, and the possible contribution of the current fiscal regime to these developments, have prompted a reassessment of the oil tax system in Russia. Some important changes have already been made, while others are underway. This paper uses a simulation model to evaluate Russia's current oil fiscal regime. Based on these simulations, the paper proposes ways to make the fiscal regime more supportive of investment, while ensuring an appropriate share of oil sector profits for the government.
Mr. Alun H. Thomas, Mr. Jun I Kim, and Aqib Aslam
This paper introduces a methodology for assessing external balance in countries with large stocks of non-renewable resources based on oil stock data, and applies it to selected oil producing countries. The methodology uses a stock approach (instead of the more traditional flow approach) to estimate the equilibrium non-oil current account consistent with optimal consumption smoothing. One of the benefits of the stock approach is that geological data for oil reserves can be used to estimate oil wealth; however, the methodology makes the estimated non-oil current account norm very sensitive to oil price projections. Based on an oil price about US$70 per barrel prevailing in the summer of 2007, the baseline estimates indicate that the non-oil current accounts for most of the countries in the sample are broadly in equilibrium. By the same token, using oil price projections as of the summer of 2008 implies large disparities between the equilibrium non-oil current account position and the medium term forecast for all countries in the sample except for Malaysia.
International Monetary Fund
Iraq showed good progress in undertaking strong macroeconomic policies and implementing economic reforms under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Executive Directors welcomed this, and noted that low investment and stagnating output in the oil sector continue to hamper economic growth. They stressed that the new SBA should maintain macroeconomic stability, facilitate higher investment and output in the oil sector, and move forward with key reforms that were initiated under the previous arrangement. They also emphasized for reduction in inflation, increase in international reserves, and implementation of structural reforms.