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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s macroeconomic performance remained strong through the first half of 2015 despite a difficult external and domestic environment. Real GDP growth in 2014 is estimated at 9.2 percent, driven by copper production and the service sector. The medium-term outlook is favorable but subject to downside risks. Real GDP growth is projected to remain strong at 9.2 percent in 2015—among the highest rates in the world—and average 8.4 percent in 2016–17 before stabilizing at about 6 percent in 2018–20.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
KEY ISSUES Economic context. Growth has been strong, inflation low, and fiscal buffers and international reserves adequate. However, poverty and unemployment remain high, despite large government spending financed from oil revenue. The business climate is among the most challenging and the private credit-to-GDP ratio among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Outlook and Risks. The economy is projected to expand by about 6 percent per annum between 2014 and 2019, as new oil fields come on stream and an ambitious public investment program is implemented to diversify the economy and make growth more inclusive. Oil production is expected to peak in 2017. The medium-term outlook for non-oil growth and poverty reduction hinges on progress addressing deep-seated structural weaknesses and fiscal adjustment. Risks to the outlook relate to oil price volatility and political instability. Policies. Macroeconomic policies should focus on meeting the economy’s social and development needs while mitigating risks to macroeconomic stability in the longer term. • The growth of government spending should be arrested and the 2014 budget should not be exceeded. Amid spending pressures related to the 2015 Africa Games and the 2016 presidential elections, new fiscal developments should be reflected in a supplementary budget in 2014 to enhance transparency. • In view of the limited remaining lifetime of oil reserves, a gradual fiscal consolidation should be targeted over the medium-term to safeguard fiscal and debt sustainability. Ongoing efforts to address implementation and absorptive capacity constraints need to be stepped up to maximize the benefits from public investments. • Consideration should be given to adopt the non-oil primary balance as the fiscal anchor. • The private sector’s supply response to public infrastructure spending should be maximized through implementation of reforms to improve the business climate, support private investment, and develop the financial sector. • The pilot project for cash transfers should be well-targeted and monitored to reduce poverty. • Compliance with reserves pooling requirements would insure the continued smooth operation of the BEAC and the exchange rate peg, which both continue to serve the Republic of Congo well.
International Monetary Fund
The FY 13–15 Medium-Term Budget presented in this paper reflects the following main features: Unchanged administrative budget in real terms for FY 13. Overall spending (structural plus crisis/temporary) will be kept unchanged in real terms in FY 13 relative to the FY 12 budget (excluding the one-off additional cost of the 2012 Annual Meetings in Tokyo).Broadly unchanged administrative envelope in nominal terms for FY 13. This reflects the impact of the Executive Board’s decision in March to grant no increase in the staff salary structure in the context of the 2012 Compensation Review. The “structure increase” is the main component in the budget deflator applied to map the real total envelope into nominal terms. A capital budget dominated by the impact of the HQ1 Renewal Program. The final appropriation for this project, approved by the Executive Board in March 2011, is reflected in the proposed capital budget for FY 13.
International Monetary Fund
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.
International Monetary Fund
In this study, macroeconomic development, its performance, and outlook are reviewed. Narrowing of the infrastructure gap and public financial management (PFM) are focused to safeguard investment quality. Fiscal reform has been introduced to improve the design of the tax system and to strengthen fiscal institutions that the FAD technical assistance (TA) mission introduced. A comprehensive action plan has been introduced to improve the business climate. The outstanding debt issues are being resolved.
International Monetary Fund
Satisfactory policy implementation continues in the program under challenging conditions, but the uncertain economic, social, and political environment will test this commitment. The program is flexible to accommodate a partial pass-through of higher world oil prices to domestic fuel prices and further pro-poor spending, but ongoing fiscal discipline will be essential to achieve the program’s fiscal objectives. The implementation of revenue-enhancing measures will require political will. Executive Directors welcome the efforts to implement the broad range of reforms in extractive industries.
International Monetary Fund
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.
International Monetary Fund
In this study, economic performance remained robust throughout the global downturn, and shows signs of further strengthening. In 2010, the external position improved significantly, as fiscal surpluses raised official foreign assets, and the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) debt relief significantly reduced external liabilities. Macroeconomic stability is well established, and the external position has improved. Private sector development has reduced oil dependence and is assuring sustained poverty-reducing growth. Efforts should be supported by policies to increase the private sector’s access to credit, and deepen financial intermediation to improve the financial performance of state-owned enterprises.
International Monetary Fund
With the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) completion, Congo’s prospects for achieving sustained growth and poverty reduction have improved. The HIPC completion reduced debt service obligations and increased the resilience of external debt indicators to shocks. Non-oil revenue is improved through broadening the tax base and improving the design of the tax system. The objectives of the poverty reduction strategy (PRS) and fiscal sustainability would require lasting gains in non-oil revenue collection. IMF staff welcomes the authority’s good faith efforts to obtain comparable treatment from all remaining commercial creditors.
International Monetary Fund
The IMF’s Executive Board completed the first review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement in June 2010 and decided that the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) had reached the completion point under the Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. In 2010, an improvement in global economic conditions supported strong macroeconomic performance; however, weaknesses in the financial sector were also exposed. The authorities recognized the importance of strengthening the independence and effectiveness of the central bank to sustain low and stable inflation.