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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Islamic Republic of Mauritania’s Third Review of Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility. The program aims at entrenching macroeconomic stability, supporting inclusive and job creating growth, and building international reserve buffers. The authorities plan to use the prospective fiscal space prudently for priority social spending—education, health, and social protection—and public infrastructure. The economic outlook has improved, buoyed by more favorable terms of trade and the upcoming development of a large offshore gas field. Growth is projected to accelerate to 6 3/4 percent this year, supported by a recovery in extractive sectors and continued broad-based non-extractive growth reflecting strong domestic demand and budding diversification. Downside risks related to global economic developments, commodity price volatility, and regional security concerns remain elevated. Considerable challenges remain to entrench macroeconomic stability, support inclusive growth, and build resilience to shocks. The prospective fiscal space should be used prudently for priority social policies and public infrastructure.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Mauritania’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The economic outlook is positive, but debt remains a concern. Near-term prospects are promising—supported by some improvement in the terms of trade, foreign direct investment in the extractive sector, planned structural reforms, and growth-enhancing public investment. Risks are balanced: on the upside, possible development of a recently discovered off-shore gas field could be a game-changer starting in 2021. On the downside, the economy remains highly vulnerable to lower metals prices, weather-related events, and regional security developments. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the ECF arrangement.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights a continued challenging external environment for Mauritania, with low and volatile metal prices. A steep decline in iron ore prices in 2014–15 took away half of exports, widened the fiscal deficit, put pressure on reserves, and exposed bank vulnerabilities. In response, the authorities adjusted the budget significantly in 2016, allowed the exchange rate to adjust, and mobilized foreign grants and loans. These efforts contributed to reducing external imbalances and maintaining macroeconomic stability. The authorities are now strengthening bank supervision and are preparing a national strategy for accelerated and inclusive growth for 2016–30, including structural reforms and a large-scale, foreign-financed infrastructure investment program to support jobs, growth, and diversification.
International Monetary Fund
The expenditure multipliers in Kuwait are likely to be high, and mostly operate through capital expenditure. Kuwait’s large state-controlled endowment of natural resource, pegged exchange rate regimes, and relatively open financial accounts are the mainstay. The nominal effective exchange rate diverged from the set pattern owing to higher inflation. Estimates from methodologies for exchange rate assessment indicate mixed results. Macroprudential policies in Kuwait would strengthen the management of systemic risk by reducing the probability and the impact of a financial boom-bust cycle on economic activity.
Mr. Klaus-Stefan Enders
While the underlying methodologies continue to be widely debated and refined, there is little consensus on how to assess the equilibrium exchange rate of economies dominated by production of finite natural resources such as the oil economies of the Middle East. In part this is due to the importance of intertemporal aspects (as the real exchange rate may affect the optimal/equitable rate of transformation of finite resource wealth into financial assets), as well as risk considerations given the relatively high volatility of commodity prices. The paper illustrates some important peculiarities of the exchange rate assessment for such natural resource producers by working through a simple two-period model that captures certain key aspects of many resource economies.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
L’édition web du Bulletin du FMI est mise à jour plusieurs fois par semaine et contient de nombreux articles sur des questions de politique générale et de politique économique d'actualité. Accédez aux dernières recherches du FMI, lisez des interviews et écoutez des podcasts proposés par les principaux économistes du FMI sur des questions importantes de l'économie mondiale. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La edición en Internet del Boletín del FMI, que se actualiza varias veces a la semana, contiene numerosos artículos sobre temas de actualidad en el ámbito de las políticas y la economía. Consulte las últimas investigaciones del FMI, lea entrevistas y escuche podcasts de los principales economistas del FMI sobre importantes temas relacionados con la economía mundial. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund
Pakistan showed good macroeconomic performance over the past years. Executive Directors welcomed the program, which aimed at strengthening the balance-of-payments position, rebuilding official reserves, and reducing public sector indebtedness. They emphasized the need for revenue mobilization, improving investor confidence, poverty alleviation, good governance, tightening fiscal and monetary policies, and improvement in the collection, quality of data, and transparency. They approved financial support for the country's economic developments under the Stand-By Arrangement.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper examines adjustment, growth, and the IMF’s role. Under the Baker plan, the IMF would continue to play a central role in dealing with the economic imbalances and the debt problems that countries face, a role that would continue to include the analysis and policy advice that the IMF brings to discussions with member countries. The IMF’s role will also be to continue to help countries obtain new external financing from commercial banks as well as from official sources.