The quota database has been updated by one year through 2014. Overall, the results of the update continue the broad trends observed in previous updates, but the shifts between the main country groups are generally smaller. Using the current quota formula, the calculated quota share of Emerging Market and Developing Countries (EMDCs) as a group increases by 0.6 percentage points relative to the 2015 update to 49.3 percent, which is about half the increase in the last update.
The paper takes stock of recent discussions on the quota formula, including the outcome of the Quota Formula Review in 2013 and subsequent discussions in the context of the annual quota data updates. It also updates the illustrative simulations of possible reforms of the quota formula presented previously, using the latest data. These simulations have sought to capture possible reforms that would be broadly in line with the conclusions of the Quota Formula Review and Directors’ guidance is sought on the relative merits of these reforms and the most productive areas for future work.
Download Quota Data: Updated IMF Quota Formula Variables - September 2016
In March 2012, the Executive Board held its first formal discussion on the comprehensive review of the quota formula. This review, to be completed by January 2013, is an important part of the quota and governance reforms agreed in 2010. Directors stressed the importance of agreeing on a quota formula that better reflects members’ relative positions in the global economy for future discussions on the 15th General Review of Quotas. This view was reiterated in April by the IMFC, which looked forward to an agreement by January 2013: "…on a simple and transparent quota formula that better reflects members’ relative positions in the world economy." The IMFC also reaffirmed its commitment to complete the 15th quota review by January 2014. It noted that any realignment is expected to result in increases in the quota shares of dynamic economies in line with their relative positions in the world economy, and hence likely in the share of EMDCs as a whole; and that steps shall be taken to protect the voice and representation of the poorest members. The Board held an informal follow-up meeting on June 13, 2012.
Mr. Luca A Ricci, Mr. Marcos d Chamon, and Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang
The availability of financial instruments related to indices that track global financial conditions and risk appetite can potentially offer countries alternative options to insure against external shocks. This paper shows that while these instruments can explain much of the in-sample variation in borrowing spreads, this fails to materialize in hedging strategies that work well out-of-sample during tranquil times. However, positions on instruments such as those tracking the US High Yield Spread, the VIX, and especially other emerging market CDS spreads can substantially offset adverse movements in own spreads during times of systemic crises. Moreover, high risk countries seem to gain more, as their underlying weaknesses makes them more vulnerable to external shocks. Overall, the limited value in tranquil times, coupled with political economy arguments and innovation costs could justify the limited interest for this type of hedging in practice
This paper summarizes key developments in the Fund’s policy work since the 2008 Annual Meetings. Table 1 presents key conclusions of policy initiatives. Table 2 provides a progress report on implementation of the Fund’s surveillance priorities.
New Q&A feature in this issue focuses on "Seven Questions about Recessions" (by Marco Terrones); IMF research summaries on financial stress (by Selim Elekdag) and on the real effects of the 2007–08 financial crisis (by Hui Tong); listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during April–June 2009; listing of recent IMF Working Papers; listing of contents of Vol. 56 No. 2 of IMF Staff Papers; listing of recent external publications by IMF staff; and a feature on Staff Position Notes, the IMF’s new policy paper series, including a list of recent papers.
Ambiguity, as opposed to uncertainty, reflects lack of sufficient information about distribution and payoffs of infrequent events. Reforms are infrequent events, undertaken in ambiguous second-best environments where bad reform outcomes are feasible. A general case for the gradualist reform strategy is that it may pay to defer some reforms until relevant information about possible reform outcomes and associated probabilities is revealed, and ambiguity is reduced over time. Gradualism may dominate the big bang strategy, if some of the reforms in a reform sequence are not sure bets and waiting costs do not dominate reversal costs under some information sets forthcoming over time. The relation to Ellsberg's Paradox is discussed. Some cases for and against gradualism are reviewed.
Following a review and assesment of recent developments in capital market and banking systems, this year's International Capital Markets report review and assesses recent developments in mature and emerging financial markets and continues the analysis of key issues affecting global financial markets. It examines the systemic implications of the continued rapid development of the global over-the-counter derivatives markets and the expansion of foreign-owned banks into emerging markets. The report also analyzes market participants assessments of the proposals for private sector involvement in the prevention and resolution of crises.
This paper presents the international financial markets aspects of the current turbulence in emerging markets. The ongoing international diversification of institutional portfolios, the return of flight capital, and the cyclical developments in industrial countries combined to generate a significant volume of capital flows into emerging markets in the developing world. In keeping with developments in global markets, these flows have increasingly been in the form of purchases of tradable bonds, equities, and money market instruments—securities that can readily be sold when sentiments change. The volume of financial wealth that can flee a developing country is now sufficiently large that it can overwhelm any attempt to maintain an exchange rate incompatible with fundamentals. Thus the possibility for investors—domestic and foreign—to exert discipline over policy has strengthened significantly. The resolution of sovereign debt-servicing difficulties has become more complicated with the changes in instruments and participants in international markets.
During 1999 and into the first half of 2000, global financial conditions generally improved in tandem with the strong rebound in the global economy. Following the most severe market turbulence—especially for emerging markets in the postwar period—entailing a succession of regional crises that enveloped the major financial markets, credit concerns have eased and global investors became more willing to engage in risk taking. This was especially evident in their rush to invest in technology-related companies that underpinned the “new economy.”
Throughout most of the 12-month period ending in June 2000, developments in international capital markets continued to be strongly influenced by the perception that the U.S. economy offered the highest risk-adjusted asset returns in the major currency areas. Favorable perceptions reflected the continued strong performance of the U.S. economy, uncertainty about growth prospects in Europe, and the halting economic and financial recovery in Japan. While this combination of factors might not explain all of the international reallocations of capital and risks, or all asset-price movements, it was an important part of the background against which these adjustments occurred. Beginning with the April–June 2000 period, this favorable sentiment about U.S. returns may have changed.