International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the findings and recommendations made by the IMF mission regarding monetary and foreign exchange operations in Uganda, Bank of Uganda (BOU) recapitalization, and Bank of Uganda Act revision. The presence of sizable precautionary and involuntary reserves and excessive short-end volatility has weakened the transmission mechanism in Uganda. The key challenge remains to enhance monetary and fiscal policy coordination and to ensure that institutional and operational arrangements are robust and conducive to efficient monetary operations framework. The BOU should raise the effectiveness of the monetary and foreign exchange operations framework. To foster further market development there is need to anchor short-term interest rates by using various fine-tuning instruments to ensure improved operational efficiency and strengthen transmission of policy signals across the curve.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the technical advice and recommendations given by the IMF mission to the authorities of Uganda regarding sectoral financial accounts. The IMF mission reviewed the sectoral financial stocks and transactions data for 2014 and noted that commendable progress has been made in compilation of annual financial accounts. The mission provided suggestions for public release of annual data for the years 2013, 2014, and 2015 by September 30, 2016. The progress on quarterly financial accounts compilation has been slow because source data were not available for some sectors and because of capacity constraints. The IMF mission recommends compilation of these data for internal purposes for sectors and instruments with data availability.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses technical advice and recommendations given by the IMF mission to the authorities of Uganda regarding development of financial transactions and balance sheets. The IMF mission suggested developing the financial transactions and balance sheets based on a holistic approach following the integrated sectoral accounts framework of the 2008 System of National Accounts. This approach will highlight the interconnection of the four main sectors of the Ugandan economy. The IMF mission judged that development of experimental financial transactions and sector balance sheets is possible in the near future. However, the development of final accounts that are consistent with nonfinancial accounts would take two to three more years and would depend on acquisition of additional source data.
Mr. Emre Alper, Mr. R. Armando Morales, and Mr. Fan Yang
This paper analyzes the degree to which volatility in interbank interest rates leads to
volatility in financial instruments with longer maturities (e.g., T-bills) in Kenya since
2012, year in which the monetary policy framework switched to a forward-looking
approach, relative to seven other inflation targeting (IT) countries (Ghana, Hungary,
Poland, South Africa, Sweden, Thailand, and Uganda). Kenya shows strong volatility
transmission and high persistence similar to other countries in transition to a more
forward-looking monetary policy framework. These results emphasize the importance of a
strong commitment to an interbank rate as an operational target and suggest that the
central bank could reduce uncertainty in short-term yields significantly by smoothing out
the overnight interest rates around the policy rate.
The IMF Research Bulletin includes listings of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The research summaries in this issue are “Explaining the Recent Slump in Investment” (Mathieu Bussiere, Laurent Ferrara, and Juliana Milovich) and “The Quest for Stability in the Housing Markets” (Hites Ahir). The Q&A column reviews “Seven Questions on Estimating Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries” (Bin Grace Li, Christopher Adam, and Andrew Berg). Also included in this issue are updates on the IMF’s official journal, the IMF Economic Review, and recommended readings from IMF Publications.
This paper discusses Uganda’s Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and Request for Waiver of an Assessment Criterion and Modification of Assessment Criteria. The economy of Uganda has fared well in a difficult environment. Program performance under the PSI was generally positive. All end-June and continuous quantitative assessment criteria were observed, with one exception, and so were most indicative targets. Inflation remained within the bands of the consultation clause. An unprecedented increase in tax revenue was a key achievement. However, further progress on structural reforms is needed. The authorities are rightly adjusting the policy mix. The IMF staff recommends completing the fifth review under the PSI.
This supplement presents ten case studies, which highlight the roles of targeted policies to facilitate sustainable financial deepening in a variety of country circumstances, reflecting historical experiences that parallel a range of markets in LICs. The case studies were selected to broadly capture efforts by countries to increase reach (e.g., financial inclusion), depth (e.g., financial intermediation), and breadth of financial systems (e.g., capital market, cross-border development). The analysis in the case studies highlights the importance of a balanced approach to financial deepening. A stable macroeconomic environment is vital to instill consumer, institutional, and investor confidence necessary to encourage financial market activity. Targeted public policy initiatives (e.g., collateral, payment systems development) can be helpful in removing impediments and creating infrastructure for improved market operations, while ensuring appropriate oversight and regulation of financial markets, to address potential sources of instability and market failures.
This paper analyzes the impact of the global financial crisis on the banking systems in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, and their responses to it, using information from banking system balance sheets. The paper undertakes two distinct analyses. In the first analysis, the focus is on the trend in intersectoral balances and positions in the long run, using annual data for 2001–08. The second analysis uses monthly data for December 2007–May 2009 to determine how intersectoral balance sheets adjusted in the short run to sudden changes in the economic environment during the recent global financial crisis.
This Selected Issues paper for Kenya, Uganda, and United Republic of Tanzania highlights their private sector credit markets, identifies their main obstacles in promoting credit to the private sector, and suggests a reform strategy. If the East African Community (EAC) countries decide to pursue a coordinated approach to investment incentives, one possible solution would be to agree on a Code of Conduct for Investment Incentives and Company Income Taxation. A transparent tax system with a broad base would reduce the demand by investors for tax holidays.