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Jorge Alvarez
A key feature of developing economies is that wages in agriculture are significantly below those of other sectors. Using Brazilian household surveys and administrative panel data, I use information on workers who switch sectors to decompose the drivers of this gap. I find that most of the gap is explained by differences in worker composition. The evidence speaks against the existence of large short-term gains from reallocating workers out of agriculture and favors recently proposed Roy models of inter-sector sorting. A calibrated sorting model of structural transformation can account for the wage gap level observed and its decline as the economy transitioned out of agriculture.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses three important sectors of Belize economy: financial, sugar market, and energy. Belize’s banking system has continued to strengthen since the 2014 Article IV Consultation in June 2014. Despite recent improvements, some banks’ balance sheets are still weak and exposed to adverse macroeconomic developments. The sugar sector makes a very important contribution to Belize’s economy. The sector is estimated to account for about 4-5 percent of GDP, 9-10 percent of total exports, 8 percent of employment, and 5-6 percent of foreign exchange earnings. But the reform of EU sugar regime, scheduled to take full effect in 2017, will most likely cause a significant drop in the EU sugar price.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper explores key issues affecting the Indian economy and implications for fiscal, monetary, financial sector, and other structural policies. This paper evaluates the build-up of corporate and banking sector vulnerabilities in India, linked to the past macroeconomic slowdown and supply-side bottlenecks, particularly in the infrastructure sector; the nature, scope, and the effectiveness of macroprudential policies in India; the potential costs and benefits of gold monetization schemes in India; two recent episodes of financial market volatility—the taper tantrum of the summer of 2013 and the China spillover episode of the summer of 2015; effectiveness of India’s capital controls using an arbitrage based approach; the relationship between Indian; and international market prices of cereals.
Mr. Ron Alquist and Mr. Olivier Coibion
We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the combined contribution of all aggregate shocks which have no direct effects on commodity markets other than through general equilibrium effects on output, while other factors represent direct commodity shocks. Thus, the factor structure provides a decomposition of underlying structural shocks. The theory also provides guidance on how empirical factors can be rotated to identify the structural factors. We apply factor analysis and the identification conditions implied by the model to a cross-section of real non-energy commodity prices. The theoretical restrictions implied by the model are consistent with the data and thus yield a structural interpretation of the common factors in commodity prices. The analysis suggests that commodity-related shocks have generally played a limited role in global business cycle fluctuations.
International Monetary Fund
En los últimos años, el FMI ha publicado cada vez más informes y trabajos que abarcan los fenómenos y tendencias en materia económica y financiera en los países miembros. Un equipo de integrantes del personal técnico del FMI elabora cada informe tras celebrar consultas con los funcionarios de los gobiernos; el país miembro puede optar por publicar el informe.
International Monetary Fund
Paraguay’s economy recently experienced particularly large output swings. Economic policies will play a critical role in raising investment by making sure that macroeconomic stability is maintained. The spillovers from the agricultural sector to the rest of the economy are limited. The high level of bank excess reserves in Paraguay reflects a mixture of precautionary and involuntary factors. Large bank excess reserves weaken the monetary transmission channel, and cause inefficiency costs. Bank reforms should be undertaken to preserve financial and macroeconomic stability.
International Monetary Fund
A major element of the persistent fiscal imbalances in Guinea-Bissau is the relatively low level of revenue compared with other sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Fiscal revenues, including grants, trended downward significantly in Guinea-Bissau from 1991 through 2005, especially during the last five years. Nontax revenues are stagnant as a proportion of GDP as a result of weak fisheries administration and control. Tax revenues as a proportion of GDP are relatively low in Guinea-Bissau even compared with other low-income countries.
Mr. Bennett W Sutton, Mrs. Genevieve M Lindow, Maria Isabel Serra, Mr. Gustavo Ramirez, and Maria Fernanda Pazmino
This paper presents empirical evidence on convergence of per capita output for regions within six large middle-income Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. It explores the role played by several exogenous sectoral shocks and differences in steady states within each country. It finds that poor and rich regions within each country converged at very low rates over the past three decades. It also finds evidence of regional "convergence clubs" within Brazil and Peru- the estimated speeds of convergence for these countries more than double after controlling for different subnational levels of steady state. For the latter countries and Chile, convergence is also higher after controlling for sector-specific shocks. Finally, results show that national disparities in per capita output increased temporarily after each country pursued trade liberalization.