Matthew Gaertner, Ms. Laure Redifer, Pedro Conceição, Mr. Rafael A Portillo, Luis-Felipe Zanna, Jan Gottschalk, Mr. Andrew Berg, Ayodele F. Odusola, Mr. Brett E. House, and Mr. José Saúl Lizondo
The pace of progress toward achievement of the Millenium Development Goals (MDG) in many sub-Saharan African countries remains too slow to reach targets by 2015, despite significant progress in the late 1990s. The MDG Africa Steering Group, convened in September 2007 by the UN Secretary-General, designated 10 countries for pilot studies to investigate how existing national development plans would be impacted by scaled up development aid to Africa. This joint publication of the IMF and the United Nations Development Programme reports conclusions drawn from these pilot studies and summarizes country-specific results for Benin, the Central African Republic, Ghana, Liberia, Niger, Rwanda, Tanzania, Togo, Sierra Leone, and Zambia.
In 2010, average inflation has remained low in all West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries, but has edged up in the second half of the year. After a moderate fiscal easing by about 1½ percentage points of GDP in 2009, mostly the result of higher capital spending, the area-wide average deficit is estimated to have declined slightly to 3.1 percent of GDP in 2010. A compression of imports in 2009, the region’s external current account deficit is estimated to have returned to about 5½ percent of GDP in 2010.
In September 2007, the UN Secretary General launched the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) Africa Steering and Working Groups. The Steering Group brings together the leaders of multilateral institutions to identify practical steps needed for Africa to achieve the MDGs. The Managing Director of the IMF is a member of the Steering Group. The Working Group supports the Steering Group and is comprised of thematic groups in education, agriculture, health, infrastructure and trade facilitation, statistics, aid predictability, and MDG operationalization at the country level. The following three notes assess the macroeconomic implications of the spending of scaled-up aid to Benin, Niger, and Togo in line with that promised by the G-8 at Gleneagles, Scotland in 2005.
This paper examines the external sustainability and competitiveness of Benin’s economy. Balance of payments flows suggest Benin’s external position is sustainable. Large trade and current account deficits are comfortably financed by inflows through the capital and financial accounts, in particular project grants and loans, private capital, and inflows to commercial banks. It is estimated that Benin could sustain a net foreign liability position in the range of 40–60 percent of GDP, corresponding to current account deficits of 3–5 percent of GDP.
This paper assesses the link between public investment and economic growth in Burkina Faso. It also evaluates Burkina Faso's external competitiveness by using a comparison of REER to its equilibrium levels and a survey-based assessment of overall competitiveness. The report attempts to quantify the impact of rainfall and terms-of-trade shocks on the Burkinabe economy and draws policy measures to lessen external shocks. The report assesses that industrial mining has become a source of foreign exchange and government revenue, which requires transparent management and accountability.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Following a series of international donor meetings aimed at helping Afghanistan stabilize and rebuild its economy, the IMF sent a mission to Kabul for four days in late January. The team was led by Paul Chabrier, Director of the IMF’s Middle Eastern Department. He speaks here about the country’s immediate needs and the IMF’s role.
Over the past two decades, Nigeria has not reaped fully the benefits of its national wealth despite its efforts at structural adjustment. This paper concludes that the facts do not justify the negative image that structural adjustment has had in Nigeria. Vigorous market reforms and tight financial policies had resulted in economic growth and employment expansion, but they were abandoned too soon to have sustained benefits.
Based on a simple model, the paper provides an explanation for illegal oil trade between Nigeria and its neighboring countries. The analysis focuses on the linkages between the level of smuggling and changes in the Government’s fiscal, monetary, and domestic pricing policies. It is shown that smuggling has implications for inflation and currency depreciation. A vicious circle emerges when financial policies are expansionary and policy makers attempt to hold the domestic sale price of oil constant. Macroeconomic indicators of Nigeria over the period 1986-1993 appear to support the predictions of the model. Policy implications of the analysis are also noted.
The Mundell-Fleming model of international macroeconomic originated in the early 1960s and has been extended during the ensuing quarter century. This paper develops an exposition that integrates the various facets of the model and incorporates its extensions into a unified analytical framework. Attention is given to (1) the distinction between short-run and long-run effects of policies, (2) the implications of debt and tax financing of government expenditures, and (3) the role of the exchange rate regime in this regard. By identifying the key mechanisms operating in the model, the exposition clarifies the model’s limitations and facilitates comparison with other, more current approaches.