2018 Article IV Consultation; First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement; Request for Waiver for Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Modification of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burkina Faso
Growth is projected at 5.4 percent for 2016 and 6.1 percent for 2017, owing to higher gold production and a rebound in agriculture and services. The authorities have published their National Economic and Social Development Plan (PNDES), which envisages an ambitious scaling up of investment over the next 5 years. Given limited financing and absorption capacity, staff recommends a more gradual approach, consistent with medium-term debt sustainability.
Growth is projected to increase moderately from 4 percent in 2014-15 to 5.2 percent in 2016, as the broad-based recovery anticipated in the wake of the November elections has been dampened by the January terrorist attacks. Following almost two years of political crisis and transition, the central policy challenge facing the authorities is to create the necessary fiscal space to deliver tangible improvements in the quality of life of the Burkinabè people.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYGrowth remains robust, despite slight downward revisions. Growth estimates for 2013 and projections for 2014 were revised to 6.6 and 6.8 percent, respectively, reflecting weather and weaker terms of trade. Inflation is around zero, partly due to subsidized food prices. The revised 2013 current account deficit rose to 7 percent of GDP, with a drawdown of imputed reserves. The 2013 fiscal deficit increased to 3.5 percent of GDP, reflecting weaker revenues and spending for subsidies, partly offset by higher grants.In line with 2011 Article IV recommendations, the authorities maintained a prudent fiscal stance, despite numerous shocks, and implemented structural reforms that have improved the resilience of agriculture, especially cotton. Social transfers have been bolstered to ensure the benefits of growth are better distributed. An updated external stability analysis shows that the exchange rate is broadly in line with fundamentals, and an updated joint debt sustainability analysis maintains a “moderate” risk of debt distress.Program performance has been satisfactory. The authorities are requesting a waiver for a non-observance in the performance criterion for net domestic financing at end-December 2013, with most other quantitative targets met and all structural benchmarks for end-January and end-March met. Program targets differ mainly due to higher budget support projections. The 3 percent fiscal deficit target for the medium term macroeconomic framework remains unchanged, although with a higher share of current spending.Policy discussions focused on composition and quality of spending, transfers to public enterprises, and natural resource revenues. The authorities recently submitted a supplemental budget that increases the share of current spending for a higher wage bill and more social and public enterprise transfers, but remains within program targets as a result of spending offsets and higher budget support. The authorities are proposing an audit of large public enterprises to estimate needs for the medium term, and inform reforms to reduce transfer needs. The National Assembly did not approve a new mining taxation code byend-2013 as expected, rather, the draft code was sent back to the authorities for furtherconsideration of investors’ concerns.
This 2011 Article IV Consultation and the Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility for Burkina Faso highlights that the authorities have maintained fiscal consolidation efforts while mitigating the impact of exogenous shocks. Executive Directors have welcomed the authorities’ sustained implementation of sound policies and structural reforms, which has contributed to robust economic growth, low inflation, and a broadly favorable external position. Directors have encouraged the authorities to maintain fiscal discipline within the context of a medium-term fiscal framework while increasing investment and social spending.
This study discusses how Burkina Faso’s economy recovered from the 2009 downturn. Recent economic and social developments used to overcome the 2009 downturn are explained. Discussions on fiscal policy and mitigating measures against exogenous shocks, external sector policies and reforms, and prospects for accelerated growth under the new Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) are focused in this paper. The performance of the program will be monitored by structural benchmarks and quantitative targets. Finally, the conclusion of the second Extended Credit Facility (ECF) review and medium-term policy was recommended by IMF staff.
In 2008–09, economic activity in Burkina Faso was negatively affected by the increase in global food and fuel prices, the global economic and financial crisis, and heavy flooding in Ouagadougou in September 2009. These shocks are estimated to have contributed to a deterioration in poverty indicators. Spending on emergency and humanitarian needs rose after the 2009 flooding. Fiscal stimulus measures were also adopted to support economic activity. Executive Directors have welcomed the authorities’ resolve to enhance revenue performance and expenditure management while unwinding exceptional expenditure generated by adverse exogenous shocks.
This paper focuses on the Fourth Review for Burkina Faso under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility program. All quantitative performance criteria were met, notably the targets for the fiscal deficit, revenues, and social expenditure. The authorities reiterated their commitment to reforming tax policy. Despite progress on preparation, some delays have occurred because of delays in delivery of technical assistance, inadequate domestic capacity, and the challenging external context. The priority for 2009 is to sustain the reform momentum in a difficult environment.
This paper presents Burkina Faso’s third review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility. Favorable weather augurs well for a rebound in agricultural production, but real GDP growth is expected to remain below trend in the near term. A good harvest would contribute to an easing of inflation pressures, supported by lower international oil and food prices. Domestic supply will largely determine developments in 2009. The main risks relate to further deterioration of the external environment, especially indirect effects of the global financial turmoil.
Structural reforms and strong macroeconomic policies of Burkina Faso have promoted economic growth and low inflation over the past decade. Executive Directors welcomed this development, and encouraged the authorities to reduce the fiscal deficit and maintain fiscal and external debt sustainability. They underscored the importance of a sound fiscal policy and a prudent policy framework to improve external competitiveness. They commended tax policy reform and adoption of the new cotton producer price mechanism. In view of this, grant financing is desirable to keep debt sustainable.