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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Guinea’s Eighth and Final Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Extension of the Current Arrangement. Guinea’s medium-term economic prospects are good. Growth is projected to average 5 percent during 2017–20, on the back of higher investments in the mining sector, increases in food production, and better electricity services. The recovery in the agricultural sector will allow the growth rebound to be shared by larger segments of the population, but the sector remains vulnerable to weather-related supply shocks. The IMF staff supports the completion of the eighth review under the ECF arrangement and financing assurances review.
Mr. Marc G Quintyn and Ms. Genevieve Verdier
Only a minority of countries have succeeded in establishing a developed financial system, despite widespread financial liberalization. Confronted with this finding, the political institutions view claims that sustained financial deepening is most likely to take place in institutional environments where governments effectively impose constraints on their own powers in order to create trust. This paper identifies over 200 post-1960 episodes of accelerations in financial development in a large cross-section of countries. We find that the likelihood of an acceleration leading to sustained financial development increases greatly in environments that have high-quality political institutions.
Mr. Armando Méndez Morales and Maria del Mar Cacha
Bank borrowers' currency mismatches often result from unhedged foreign currency borrowing in economies where there is significant dollarization, exposing the financial sector to disguised credit risk. In the absence of standard tools or guidelines to counteract this risk, countries have resorted to outright regulatory limits in cases of moderate dollarization and to undesirable exchange controls in other cases. This paper proposes a "specific-to-group" provision rule based on the effective borrowing cost differential between domestic and foreign currency. Such a rule would help internalize the corresponding risks for banks and their borrowers in line with internationally accepted prudential and accounting standards.