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Mr. Ali M. Mansoor, Salifou Issoufou, and Mr. Daouda Sembene

Abstract

Through 18 chapters, this book draws on policy lessons from successful countries that have managed to overcome political economy constraints and reach upper-middle-income emerging market economy status to examine how Senegal can achieve per capita growth rates of four to five percent per year over a 20-year period, as well as lessons for other low-income countries. Contributors working in academia, civil society, and government in Senegal, as well as at the World Bank, in peer countries like Mauritius, Morocco, and Seychelles, and the International Monetary Fund, address creating a sound, balanced, and efficient fiscal framework through new revenue-raising measures, expenditure rationalization, and more efficient public investment; promoting an inclusive and deeper financial sector; relieving constraints on doing business and promoting private investment, including foreign direct investment; and achieving high, sustained, and inclusive growth. They discuss Senegal's macroeconomic environment and what it means to be an upper-middle-income emerging market economy, including the country's industrial framework, the Plan Senegal emergent growth targets, and dimensions of inclusive growth; revenue mobilization, public expenditure efficiency and rationalization, and debt sustainability; ways to make Senegal's financial system more stable, deeper, and more inclusive in the context of the West African Economic and Monetary Union; aspects of structural reform in the country and ways to implement reforms to achieve growth; and social inclusion and protection in Senegal.

International Monetary Fund
Access to Fund financial resources provides a financial safety net to help countries manage adverse shocks, acting as a potential supplement to foreign reserves when there is a balance of payments need. Such support is especially important to developing countries with limited capacity to borrow in domestic or foreign markets. This paper proposes a set of measures that would expand access to Fund resources for developing countries, as one of the initiatives the Fund is undertaking as part of the wider effort of the international community to support countries in pursuing the post- 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Juliana Dutra Araujo, Mr. Antonio David, Carlos van Hombeeck, and Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
Low-income countries (LIDCs) are typically characterized by intermittent and very modest access to private external funding sources. Motivated by recent developments in private flows to LIDCs this paper makes two contributions: First, it constructs a new comprehensive dataset on gross private capital flows with special focus on non-FDI flows in LIDCs. Concentrating on LIDCs and more specifically on gross non-FDI private flows is intentionally aimed at closing a gap in existing datasets where country coverage of developing economies is limited mainly to emerging markets (EMs). Second, using the new data, it identifies several shifting patterns of gross non-FDI private inflows to LIDCs. A surprising fact emerges: since the mid 2000's periods of surges in gross non-FDI private inflows in LIDCs are broadly comparable to those of EMs. Moreover, while gross non-FDI inflows to LIDCs are on average much lower than those to EMs, we show that the LIDC top quartile gross non-FDI inflow is comparable to the EM median inflow and converging to the EM top quartile inflow.
Ahmat Jidoud
This paper investigates the channels through which remittances affect macroeconomic volatility in African countries using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model augmented with financial frictions. Empirical results indicate that remittances—as a share of GDP—have a significant smoothing impact on output volatility but their impact on consumption volatility is somewhat small. Furthermore, remittances are found to absorb a substantial amount of GDP shocks in these countries. An investigation of the theoretical channels shows that the stabilization impact of remittances essentially hinges on two channels: (i) the size of the negative wealth effect on labor supply induced by remittances and, (ii) the strength of financial frictions and the ability of remittances to alleviate these frictions.
Yasemin Bal Gunduz, Mr. Christian H Ebeke, Ms. Burcu Hacibedel, Ms. Linda Kaltani, Ms. Vera V Kehayova, Mr. Chris Lane, Mr. Christian Mumssen, Miss Nkunde Mwase, and Mr. Joseph Thornton

Abstract

This paper aims to assess the economic impact of the IMF’s support through its facilities for low-income countries. It relies on two complementary econometric analyses: the first investigates the longer-term impact of IMF engagement—primarily through successive medium-term programs under the Extended Credit Facility and its predecessors (and more recently the Policy Support Instrument)—on economic growth and a range of other indicators and socioeconomic outcomes; the second focuses on the role of IMF shock-related financing—through augmentations of Extended Credit Facility arrangements and short-term and emergency financing instruments—on short-term macroeconomic performance.

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for The Gambia underlies that the exchange rate is broadly in line with fundamentals, although data weaknesses and uncertainties prevent a definitive assessment. The Gambia’s current account deficit is higher than economic fundamentals would predict, and a depreciation of 11 percent would be needed to restore sustainability. The external sustainability approach suggests that 4–6 percent depreciation is needed for the current account deficit to be consistent with constant net foreign assets as a share of GDP.
International Monetary Fund
This paper explores how the Fund's instruments and practices might be adapted to support sound policies in low-income members, in particular those that do not have a need or want to use Fund resources.
Mr. Etienne B Yehoue
This paper develops a model that highlights the importance of clusters for attracting foreign direct investment. It shows from a game theoretical perspective how the combination of setting up a cluster and implementing policy reforms will be a key engine for attracting FDI. Based on agglomeration externalities, the paper shows that the very emergence of clusters can make investment so profitable that investors can even afford to tolerate more policyinduced distortions than otherwise. With perfect information, it shows the existence of multiple equilibria, in which some countries attract FDI while other do not. An extension to the context of imperfect information refines the analysis to a unique equilibrium, in which some investors respond to reforms. The paper presents case studies to support the findings.
Dorothy Engmann, Mr. Ousmane Dore, and Benoít Anne
This paper evaluates the impact of the sociopolitical crisis in Côte d'Ivoire on the economies of its neighbors. Using a nonsubjective weighted index of regional instability in cross-country time-series regressions, it shows that the increase in regional instability caused by domestic instability in Côte d'Ivoire had a negative effect on the growth performance of its most direct neighbors, but no significant effect on the subregion as a whole including the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The paper also examines the channels through which such spillover effects took place.