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You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

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Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
How to Assess Country Risk: The Vulnerability Exercise Approach Using Machine Learning
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The IMF’s Vulnerability Exercise (VE) is a cross-country exercise that identifies country-specific near-term macroeconomic risks. As a key element of the Fund’s broader risk architecture, the VE is a bottom-up, multi-sectoral approach to risk assessments for all IMF member countries. The VE modeling toolkit is regularly updated in response to global economic developments and the latest modeling innovations. The new generation of VE models presented here leverages machine-learning algorithms. The models can better capture interactions between different parts of the economy and non-linear relationships that are not well measured in ”normal times.” The performance of machine-learning-based models is evaluated against more conventional models in a horse-race format. The paper also presents direct, transparent methods for communicating model results.
Keywords:
Risk Assessment; Supervised Machine Learning; Prediction; Sudden Stop; Exchange Market Pressure; Fiscal Crisis; Debt; Financial Crisis; Economic Crisis; Economic Growth; VE modeling toolkit; ML technique; Vulnerability Exercise approach using machine learning; IMF's Vulnerability Exercise; ML tool; crisis risk indices; Early warning systems; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Sudden stops; Banking crises; Global
Cover Prevention and Resolution of Sovereign Debt Crises
Prevention and Resolution of Sovereign Debt Crises
Ms. Julianne Ams, Mr. Tamon Asonuma, Mr. Wolfgang Bergthaler, Ms. Chanda M DeLong, Ms. Nouria El Mehdi, Mr. Mark J Flanagan, Mr. Sean Hagan, Ms. Yan Liu, Charlotte J. Lundgren, Mr. Martin Mühleisen, Alex Pienkowski, Mr. Gustavo Pinto, and Mr. Eric Robert

Abstract

“The IMF’s Role in the Prevention and Resolution of Sovereign Debt Crises” provides a guided narrative to the IMF’s policy papers on sovereign debt produced over the last 40 years. The papers are divided into chapters, tracking four historical phases: the 1980s debt crisis; the Mexican crisis and the design of policies to ensure adequate private sector involvement (“creditor bail-in”); the Argentine crisis and the search for a durable crisis resolution framework; and finally, the global financial crisis, the Eurozone crisis, and their aftermaths.

Keywords:
SLIPS; debt; crisis; financing; fund; IMF support; IMF policy response; policy development; IMF responsibility; crisis resolution role; fund support; Global; Eastern Europe; Sovereign debt restructuring; Sovereign bonds; Arrears; Commercial banks; fund policy; IMF's policy; IMF approval
Cover Policy Papers
Progress Report to the International Monetary and Financial Committee on the Activities of the Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF
International Monetary Fund
This report describes recent follow-up on past Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) evaluations, summarizes the update of the 2006 evaluation of multilateral surveillance, and outlines the ongoing evaluations. It raises the concern that progress in implementing Board-endorsed IEO recommendations has been quite mixed, suggesting the need for further consideration to reinforcing the follow-up process.
Keywords:
PP; evaluation; IEO evaluation; IEO recommendation; IEO report; evaluation of IMF; evaluation update; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Early warning systems; Reputational risk; Revenue administration transparency and accountability; Monetary unions; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Progress Report to the International Monetary and Financial Committee on the Activities of the Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF
International Monetary Fund
This report summarizes the outcome of the IEO’s evaluation of The IMF and the Crises in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, discussed by the Executive Board on July 19, 2016, and reports on recent follow-up and ongoing IEO work.
Keywords:
PP; IMF governance; IEO evaluation of IMF; evaluation; IMF performance; IMF's work; IEO evaluation; IEO recommendation; Revenue administration transparency and accountability; Monetary unions; Crisis management; Currency crises; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
European Union: Publication of Financial Sector Assessment Program Documentation—Technical Note on Progress with Bank Restructuring and Resolution in Europe
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This article is an analysis on the restructuring banking system of the European Union. The global financial crisis created the need to restructure by immensely reflecting weaknesses in the public, households, corporate, and other financial sectors. The restructuring includes the strengthening of bank resolution tools, the activation of nonperforming loans, the maintenance of macrofinancial framework, recovery of market access, and so on. The Executive Board recommends this transition of the European Union because this paves the way to financial stability globally.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; asset; restructuring plan; resolution directive; EU country; bank resolution; RWAs calculation; IMF EU FSAP FSSA; EU government; bridge bank; EU banking assets; Bank resolution framework; Bank resolution; Nonperforming loans; Financial sector stability; External balance assessment (EBA); Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation with Member Countries
International Monetary Fund
The 2012 Article IV Consultation report on euro area policies highlights that investors are withholding funding from member states most in need, moving capital “north” and abroad to perceived safer assets. Executive Directors have noted that the euro area continues to face a number of economic challenges amid increasing financial stresses and market fragmentation. Directors have also stressed that it is important that policymakers continue to demonstrate shared and unequivocal commitment—with a clear, credible roadmap—to a deeper integration of the euro area.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; european financial stability facility; euro; growth; ESM framework; rate; ESM resource; Euro Area authorities; ECB data; headline inflation; Euro Area recommendation; Fiscal union; Fiscal consolidation; Inflation; Monetary unions; Bank credit; Global; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
2011 Triennial Surveillance Review - External Study - An Evaluation of IMF Surveillance of the Euro Area
International Monetary Fund
External Study prepared by Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir, and Guntram B. Wolff: This report provides an independent evaluation of recent IMF surveillance in the euro area (EA). It focuses on the euro area as a whole and on four countries severely hit by the recent economic and financial crisis, namely Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.
Keywords:
PP; Euro area article IV; IMF surveillance; financial system; banking sector; Euro area surveillance; exchange rate; fiscal policy; member country; core message; Monetary unions; Commercial banks; Crisis resolution; Exchange rates; Global; Europe