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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.

Abstract

The April 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds that despite significant variability over the past two quarters, financial conditions remain accommodative. As a result, financial vulnerabilities have continued to build in the sovereign, corporate, and nonbank financial sectors in several systemically important countries, leading to elevated medium-term risks. The report attempts to provide a comprehensive assessment of these vulnerabilities while focusing specifically on corporate sector debt in advanced economies, the sovereign–financial sector nexus in the euro area, China’s financial imbalances, volatile portfolio flows to emerging markets, and downside risks to the housing market. These vulnerabilities require action by policymakers, including through the clear communication of any changes in their monetary policy outlook, the deployment and expansion of macroprudential tools, the stepping up of measures to repair public and private sector balance sheets, and the strengthening of emerging market resilience to foreign portfolio outflows. This GFSR also takes an in depth look at house prices at risk, a measure of downside risks to future house price growth—using theory, insights from past analyses, and new statistical techniques applied to 32 advanced and emerging market economies and major cities. The chapter finds that lower house price momentum, overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions predict heightened downside risks to house prices up to three years ahead. The measure of house prices at risk helps forecast downside risks to GDP growth and adds to early-warning models for financial crises. Policymakers can use estimates of house prices at risk to complement other surveillance indicators of housing market vulnerabilities and guide macroprudential policy actions aimed at building buffers and reducing vulnerabilities. Downside risks to house prices could also be relevant for monetary policymakers when forming their views on the downside risks to the economic and inflation outlook. Authorities considering measures to manage capital flows might also find such information useful when a surge in capital inflows increases downside risks to house prices and when other policy options are limited.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Economic activity continued to expand in the first half of 2018, albeit at a slower-than-expected pace, mainly in advanced Europe. Domestic demand, supported by stronger employment and wages, remains the main engine of growth. However, the external environment has become less supportive and is expected to soften further in 2019 owing to slowing global demand, trade tensions, and higher energy prices. Tighter financial conditions in vulnerable emerging market economies and maturing business cycles are also weighing on activity. Accordingly, growth is projected to moderate from 2.8 percent in 2017 to 2.3 percent in 2018 and 1.9 percent in 2019. That said, it is expected to remain above potential in most countries in the region.

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

The April 2018 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds that short-term risks to financial stability have increased somewhat since the previous GFSR. Medium-term risks are still elevated as financial vulnerabilities, which have built up during the years of accommodative policies, could mean a bumpy road ahead and put growth at risk. This GFSR also examines the short- and medium-term implications for downside risks to growth and financial stability of the riskiness of corporate credit allocation. It documents the cyclical nature of the riskiness of corporate credit allocation at the global and country levels and its sensitivity to financial conditions, lending standards, and policy and institutional settings. Another chapter analyzes whether and how house prices move in tandem across countries and major cities around the world—that is, global house price synchronicity.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

The five Regional Economic Outlooks published biannually by the IMF cover Asia and Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Western Hemisphere. In each volume, recent economic developments and prospects for the region are discussed as a whole, as well as for specific countries. The reports include key data for countries in the region. Each report focuses on policy developments that have affected economic performance in the region, and discusses key challenges faced by policymakers. The near-term outlook, key risks, and their related policy challenges are analyzed throughout the reports, and current issues are explored, such as when and how to withdraw public interventions in financial systems globally while maintaining a still-fragile economic recovery.These indispensable surveys are the product of comprehensive intradepartmental reviews of economic developments that draw primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through consultation with member countries.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The April 2012 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The April 2012 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Édition d'avril 2012 : après s’être fortement assombries en 2011, les perspectives de l’économie mondiale s’améliorent de nouveau progressivement. La hausse de l’activité aux États-Unis et l’amélioration des politiques économiques dans la zone euro ont réduit la menace d’un ralentissement brutal de l’économie mondiale. Une faible reprise est probable dans les principaux pays avancés, et l'activité restera relativement vigoureuse dans la plupart des pays émergents et des pays en développement. Cependant, les progrès récents sont très fragiles. Les dirigeants doivent calibrer les politiques pour appuyer la croissance à court terme et opérer les changements fondamentaux qui sont nécessaires pour réaliser une croissance saine à moyen terme. Le chapitre 3 examine comment une action dans le secteur de l'immobilier peut accélérer l'amélioration des bilans des ménages et ainsi soutenir une consommation qui, sinon, serait anémique. Le chapitre 4 examine les effets des fortes variations des prix des matières premières sur les pays exportateurs de ces produits, dont un grand nombre ont connu une décennie de bonne croissance. Toutefois, étant donné qu'il est peu probable que les prix des matières premières continuent d'augmenter au rythme élevé constaté dernièrement, ces pays devront peut-être ajuster leurs politiques, budgétaires ou autres, à une croissance de la production qui pourrait ralentir à l'avenir.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

El crecimiento en buena parte de América Latina sigue siendo sólido, si bien se desaceleró en el segundo semestre de 2011 debido al efecto combinado de la adopción de políticas más restrictivas y las incertidumbres mundiales. Según nuestro escenario base, el crecimiento en América Latina y el Caribe se moderará a aproximadamente 3¾ por ciento en 2012, desde alrededor de 4½ por ciento el año anterior. Para muchos países, el alto nivel de los precios de las materias primas y las favorables condiciones de financiamiento externo supondrán un viento a favor. En otros países, el débil crecimiento en Estados Unidos y otros países avanzados socios, o los problemas fiscales internos, reprimirán la actividad. En esta edición de Perspectivas económicas: Las Américas se ahonda en tres temas clave. Primero, el entorno económico mundial ha mejorado en cierta medida con respecto a finales de 2011, pero sigue siendo riesgoso ya que no se pueden descartar ni un recrudecimiento de las tensiones en Europa ni la probabilidad de un shock de precios del petróleo. En segundo lugar, las condiciones externas seguirán siendo favorables en gran parte de América Latina: el doble viento a favor que suponen la asequibilidad del financiamiento externo y el alto nivel precios de las materias primas probablemente persistirá por algún tiempo, pero no para siempre. Y tercero, esta coyuntura crea oportunidades para América Latina, oportunidades para incrementar la resiliencia y la flexibilidad que tanto ayudaron durante la crisis mundial de 2008-09. La información sobre estos temas amplía se amplía en secciones analíticas sobre los efectos de contagio regionales, las repercusiones de los shocks financieros mundiales en el crecimiento y los mercados inmobiliarios e hipotecarios de la región.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

En la edición de abril de 2012 de Perspectivas de la economía mundial se evalúa el panorama al que se enfrenta la economía a escala internacional, que muestra un fortalecimiento gradual tras el fuerte revés sufrido en 2011. La amenaza de una abrupta desaceleración mundial se vio contenida debido a que mejoró la actividad en Estados Unidos y se aplicaron políticas más idóneas en la zona del euro en respuesta a la profundización de la crisis europea. Por lo tanto, es probable que en las principales economías avanzadas se reinicie una recuperación débil y se prevé que en la mayoría de las economías emergentes y en desarrollo la actividad seguirá siendo relativamente sólida. No obstante, los avances recientes son muy frágiles. Las autoridades de política económica deben calibrar las políticas de estímulo al crecimiento en el corto plazo y deben implementar reformas fundamentales para lograr un crecimiento sano en el mediano plazo. En el capítulo 3 se examina de qué manera las políticas enfocadas en los mercados inmobiliarios pueden acelerar la mejora de los balances de los hogares y, por tanto, estimular un consumo que de otra manera sería anémico. Los países que han adoptado políticas de esta naturaleza ya han obtenido grandes beneficios. En general, sin embargo, el temor en torno al riesgo moral ha sido un obstáculo en este proceso. En el capítulo 4 se examina de qué manera las oscilaciones de precios de las materias primas afectan a las economías que las exportan. Muchas economías emergentes y en desarrollo han acumulado casi una década de alto crecimiento, en parte gracias a la rápida expansión del crédito o a los altos precios de las materias primas. Sin embargo, es poco probable que los precios de las materias primas sigan aumentando a un ritmo tan acelerado, y posiblemente sea necesario adaptar las políticas fiscales y otras políticas económicas a un menor crecimiento potencial del producto.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Growth in much of Latin America remains solid, although it slowed during the second half of 2011 as result of the combined effects of policy tightening and global uncertainties. Under our baseline, we expect growth in Latin America and the Caribbean to moderate to about 3¾ percent in 2012, from about 4½ last year. For many countries, high commodity prices and easy external financing conditions will provide tailwinds. For others, weak growth in the United States and other advanced-country partners, or homegrown fiscal problems, will hold back activity. This edition of the Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere elaborates on three key themes. First, the global economic environment is somewhat better than in late 2011, but remains risky as renewed tensions from Europe and the likelihood of an oil price shock cannot be discarded. Second, external conditions will remain stimulative for much of Latin America: The double tailwinds of easy external finance and high commodity prices are likely to persist for a while, though not forever. And third, this environment creates opportunities for Latin America-opportunities to build on the resilience and flexibility that has served it so well during the global crisis of 2008-09. This edition also expands on these themes through analytical features on regional spillovers, the growth effects of global financial shocks, and housing and mortgage markets in the region.