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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Europe continues to enjoy a strong growth spurt. Growth has firmed up in many European economies and the forecast is for more of the same. Real GDP increased by 2.8 percent in 2017, up from 1.8 percent in 2016. The expansion is largely driven by domestic demand, with investment increasingly contributing. Credit growth has finally picked up, which is helping Europe’s banks to rebuild profitability. While leading indicators have recently begun to ease, they remain at high levels. Accordingly, the forecast is for growth to stay strong, reaching 2.6 percent in 2018 and 2.2 percent in 2019. Amid the good times, however, fiscal adjustment and structural reforms efforts are flagging.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

This edition of the World Economic Outlook explores the prospects for growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The fragile nature of the recovery will present many challenges. These include the need for continued strong monetary, fiscal, and financial policies, ongoing efforts to restore the financial sector to health, improvements in private demand, and preparation of exit strategies on the fiscal, monetary, and financial fronts. The first of two analytical chapters included in this edition, "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: What Do We Learn from Booms and Busts?" explores whether there is a role for monetary policy in preventing asset price busts. The second, "Medium-Run Output Evolutions after Crises: A Historical Perspective," explores the effect of large economic shocks on output and its composition, including variations related to initial conditions, the type of shock, and economic policies.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Cette édition des Perspectives de l'économie mondiale est consacrée aux possibilités de croissance au lendemain de la crise financière. La fragilité de la reprise présentera de nombreux défis : maintenir des politiques monétaires, budgétaires et financières robustes, poursuivre les efforts visant à remettre le secteur financier en état, stimuler la demande privée, et préparer des stratégies de sortie sur les plans budgétaire, monétaire et financier. Le premier chapitre analytique de cette édition, intitulé « Les enseignements à tirer des fluctuations des prix des actifs pour la politique monétaire », pose la question suivante : faut-il recourir à la politique monétaire pour prévenir les effondrements des prix des actifs ? Le second chapitre, intitulé « Quelle est l'ampleur des dégâts ? La dynamique de la production à moyen terme après les crises financières », s'intéresse aux effets des gros chocs économiques sur la production et sur la structure de celle-ci, y compris les variations liées aux conditions initiales, aux types de chocs et aux politiques économiques.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

This edition of the World Economic Outlook explores the prospects for growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The fragile nature of the recovery will present many challenges. These include the need for continued strong monetary, fiscal, and financial policies, ongoing efforts to restore the financial sector to health, improvements in private demand, and preparation of exit strategies on the fiscal, monetary, and financial fronts. The first of two analytical chapters included in this edition, "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: What Do We Learn from Booms and Busts?" explores whether there is a role for monetary policy in preventing asset price busts. The second, "Medium-Run Output Evolutions after Crises: A Historical Perspective," explores the effect of large economic shocks on output and its composition, including variations related to initial conditions, the type of shock, and economic policies.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

En esta edición de Perspectivas de la economía mundial se abalizan las perspectivas de crecimiento tras la crisis financiera mundial. La fragilidad de la recuperación planteará muchos desafíos, como la necesidad de políticas monetarias, fiscales y financieras constantes y sólidas, los esfuerzos en curso para restablecer la salud del sector financiero, el fortalecimiento de la demanda privada y los preparativos para las estrategias de repliegue en los frentes fiscal, monetarios y financiero. En el primero de los dos capítulos analíticos de esta edición, “Fluctuaciones de precios delos activos: Lecciones para la política monetaria” se examina si la política montería puede servir para evitar los desplomes de los precios de los activos. En el segundo, “¿Cuáles han sido los daños? Dinámica del producto a mediano plazo después de una crisis financiera”, se estudia el efecto de shocks económicos importantes en el producto y la composición de esos shocks, como las variaciones en función de las condiciones iniciales, el tipo de shock y las políticas económicas.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

This edition of the World Economic Outlook explores the prospects for growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The fragile nature of the recovery will present many challenges. These include the need for continued strong monetary, fiscal, and financial policies, ongoing efforts to restore the financial sector to health, improvements in private demand, and preparation of exit strategies on the fiscal, monetary, and financial fronts. The first of two analytical chapters included in this edition, "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: What Do We Learn from Booms and Busts?" explores whether there is a role for monetary policy in preventing asset price busts. The second, "Medium-Run Output Evolutions after Crises: A Historical Perspective," explores the effect of large economic shocks on output and its composition, including variations related to initial conditions, the type of shock, and economic policies.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

The confluence of multiple adverse shocks—the turbulence in financial markets, high commodity prices, and the appreciation of the exchange rate—have depressed growth in Europe. At the same time commodity prices increases have boosted headline inflation. While containing inflation remains a major concern, supporting the recovery is likely to gain policy prominence in the advanced economies. Looking forward, improvements in prudential regulation could mitigate the procyclicality of credit standards, which should help reduce macroeconomic volatility. Cross-border labor flows are generally seen to have beneficial macroeconomic effects.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook is packed with country specific facts, figures, and worldwide projections that present the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Leading international economists pull together the latest data on key topics, producing informed projections and policy analyses that show where the global economy is headed in the years to come. Business executives, policymakers, bankers, investors, marketing strategists, and economists worldwide refer to the WEO with confidence because it delivers a balanced view of the current economic situation, built upon the respected and extensive macroeconomic expertise and statistical resources of the IMF. The WEO is the product of a unique international exercise in information gathering and analysis performed by over 1,000 economists on the IMF staff. An annual subscription to the World Economic Outlook, published at least twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, offers a comprehensive assessment of the international economic situation as well as prospects for the future. With its analyses backed by the expertise and unparalleled resources of the IMF, the World Economic Outlook is the authoritative reference in its field. Today, when even small economic fluctuations can trigger major financial swings, the WEO supplies a solid source of actionable information and data.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

El informe sobre las Perspectivas de la economía mundial, publicado dos veces al año en inglés, francés, español y árabe, presenta análisis realizados por economistas del cuerpo técnico del FMI sobre la evolución económica mundial a corto y mediano plazo. En los capítulos se presenta un panorama de la economía mundial; se consideran cuestiones que afectan a los países industriales, los países en desarrollo y las economías en transición hacia un sistema de mercado, y se abordan temas relevantes para la situación actual. Anexos, recuadros, gráficos y un extenso apéndice estadístico complementan el texto.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Les Perspectives de l'économie mondiale (PEM), publiées deux fois l'an en anglais, français, espagnol et arabe, présentent des analyses de l'évolution économique mondiale à court et moyen termes, préparées par les principaux économistes du FMI. Les divers chapitres donnent un tour d'horizon de l'économie mondiale, évoquent des questions qui touchent les pays industrialisés, les pays en développement, et ceux en transition vers une économie de marché, et abordent des thèmes d'actualité. Des annexes, des encadrés, des graphiques et un appendice statistique détaillé complètent le texte.