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Gail Cohen, João Tovar Jalles, Mr. Prakash Loungani, and Ricardo Marto
Recent discussions of the extent of decoupling between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and real gross domestic product (GDP) provide mixed evidence and have generated much debate. We show that to get a clear picture of decoupling it is important to distinguish cycles from trends: there is an Environmental Okun's Law (a cyclical relationship between emissions and real GDP) that often obscures the trend relationship between emissions and real GDP. We show that, once the cyclical relationship is accounted for, the trends show evidence of decoupling in richer nations—particularly in European countries, but not yet in emerging markets. The picture changes somewhat, however, if we take into consideration the effects of international trade, that is, if we distinguish between production-based and consumption-based emissions. Once we add in their net emission transfers, the evidence for decoupling among the richer countries gets weaker. The good news is that countries with underlying policy frameworks more supportive of renewable energy and supportive of climate change tend to have greater decoupling between trend emissions and trend GDP, and for both production- and consumption-based emissions.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This issue of the IMF Research Bulletin features recommended readings from IMF Publications and an update on recent IMF Working Papers and IMF Staff Discussion Notes. It also includes a special announcement welcoming Linda Tesar (University of Michigan) as the new editor of “IMF Economic Review.” The Q&A section explores “Seven Questions on China-Africa Relations” (Luiz Almeida, Wenjie Chen, and Oral Williams). The Research Summaries surveys “Income Polarization in the United States” (Ali Alichi, Kory Kantenga, and Juan Sole); and “The Future Wealth of Nations: World Trade in Services” (Prakash Loungani, Saurabh Mishra, Chris Papageorgiou, and Ke Wang).
Mr. Vivek B. Arora and Mr. Athanasios Vamvakidis
This paper empirically examines the extent to which a country's economic growth is influenced by its trading partner economies. Panel estimation results based on four decades of data for over 100 countries show that trading partners' growth and relative income levels have a strong effect on domestic growth, even after controlling for the influence of common global and regional trends. One interpretation is that conditional convergence is stronger, the richer are a country's trading partners. A general implication of the results is that industrial countries benefit from trading with developing countries, which grow rapidly, while developing countries benefit from trading with industrial countries, which have relatively high incomes.
Mr. Athanasios Vamvakidis and Mr. Vivek B. Arora
This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of economic growth in the United States on growth in other countries. Using panel data estimation, the paper finds a significant positive impact of U.S. growth on growth in the rest of the world, especially developing countries, during the past few decades. The evidence suggests that the impact of U.S. growth on other countries can be explained by the significance of the United States as a global trading partner. The paper provides estimates of the direct impact of trade with the United States on growth in several individual countries.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.