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Anna Nordstrom, Mr. Scott Roger, Mr. Mark R. Stone, Seiichi Shimizu, Turgut Kisinbay, and Jorge Restrepo

Abstract

This paper explores the role of exchange rates in emerging economies with inflation-targeting regimes, an issue that has become especially germane during the current episode of financial turmoil and volatile capital flows. Under inflation targeting, the interest rate is the main monetary policy tool for influencing activity and inflation, and there is little agreement about the appropriate role of the exchange rate.The exchange rate is a more important monetary policy tool for emerging economies that have adopted inflation targeting than it is for inflation-targeting advanced economies. Inflation-targeting emerging economies generally have less flexible exchange rate arrangements and intervene more frequently in the foreign exchange market than their advanced economy counterparts. The enhanced role of the exchange rate reflects these economies' greater vulnerability to exchange rate shocks and their less developed financial markets. However, their sharper focus on the exchange rate may cause some confusion about the commitment of their central banks to achieve the inflation target and may also complicate policy implementation. Global inflation pressures, greater exchange rate volatility, and the financial stresses from the global financial turmoil that began in mid-2007 are heightening these tensions.

Mr. Garbis Iradian

This paper analytically explores and empirically tests a number of hypotheses to explain the rapid growth in transition economies. Using the latest panel data, the paper finds that growth in transition economies has been higher because of the recovery of lost output, progress in market reforms, and favorable external conditions. These results are consistent with estimates from the global sample that includes 123 countries, and are robust to instrumental variable estimations and other robustness tests. A general implication of the findings is that some of the factors behind the rapid growth are unlikely to continue for a very long time and that the challenge would be to further improve the investment climate, which will require broadening the scope of macroeconomic reform into a second generation of reforms encompassing structural and institutional areas.

FRANCIS Y. KUMAH and JOHN M. MATOVU

Unanticipated changes in commodity prices can generate significant movements in fiscal aggregates. This paper seeks to understand the dynamics of these fiscal movements in the context of transitory commodity price shocks, using sample data from four countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States—two oil-exporting and two non-oil-exporting commodity-intensive countries. It adopts a structural vector autoregression approach to identify dynamic effects of commodity price shocks on fiscal performance under two broad tax regimes. Stochastic simulations indicate high probabilities of fiscal overperformance in the short term when commodity prices are high. These probabilities deteriorate significantly, however, in the long run after the transitory positive commodity price shock has dissipated, particularly when lax fiscal policy is adopted during the period of the price boom. IMF Staff Papers (2007) 54, 91–112. doi:10.1057/palgrave.imfsp.9450001

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
En mettant l’accent sur le travail du FMI et sur les grandes questions macroéconomiques et financières internationales, le Bulletin du FMI présente une analyse des développements nationaux, régionaux et mondiaux, des informations sur le travail, les politiques, les réformes et les activités d'assistance technique du FMI, les conclusions d'études de calibre mondial, des données essentielles qui ne sont souvent pas disponibles ailleurs, ainsi que des rapports sur les discussions économiques et financières au sein du FMI et ailleurs. Publié douze fois par an, ce bulletin de seize pages s'adresse à un large public : dirigeants, analystes, chercheurs, étudiants et journalistes. Disponible en anglais, français et espagnol.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
El Boletín del FMI aborda de manera específica el trabajo del FMI y los grandes temas macroeconómicos y financieros internacionales y ofrece análisis sobre la evolución en los distintos países y regiones y en el mundo; información sobre las operaciones, políticas, reformas y asistencia técnica del FMI; síntesis de las principales investigaciones económicas mundiales; datos fundamentales que no suelen estar disponibles en otras fuentes, e informes sobre debates económicos y financieros que tienen lugar dentro y fuera del FMI. Este boletín de 16 páginas, publicado 12 veces al año, está orientado a una vasta audiencia, que incluye autoridades de política económica, analistas, profesionales del mundo académico y de los medios de difusión y estudiantes. Disponible en inglés, español y francés.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
IEO on IMF exchange rate advice; GFSR: financial system risks and issues for regulators; good times in Belgium; Africa's oil exporters; outlook for Middle East and Central Asia; Caucasus and Central Asia:capital flows; lessons from a decade of crises.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

The Kyrgyz Republic has been declared eligible for assistance under the joint IMF–World Bank enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, the IMF announced. In February 2005, the IMF approved a loan of about $13 million under its Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) to support the Central Asian country’s economic program. The Kyrgyz Republic, with a population of 5.3 million, is eligible for 100 percent grant funding under the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) for FY06/07.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
En mettant l’accent sur le travail du FMI et sur les grandes questions macroéconomiques et financières internationales, le Bulletin du FMI présente une analyse des développements nationaux, régionaux et mondiaux, des informations sur le travail, les politiques, les réformes et les activités d'assistance technique du FMI, les conclusions d'études de calibre mondial, des données essentielles qui ne sont souvent pas disponibles ailleurs, ainsi que des rapports sur les discussions économiques et financières au sein du FMI et ailleurs. Publié douze fois par an, ce bulletin de seize pages s'adresse à un large public : dirigeants, analystes, chercheurs, étudiants et journalistes. Disponible en anglais, français et espagnol.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.