The medium-term income projections have been updated since the last estimate provided to the Executive Board in April 2014. The main changes to the outlook stem from a lower path for credit outstanding and expectations for a more gradual rise in interest rates.
The revised projections show lower levels of net operational income over the coming years. Lending income is lower compared with earlier estimates as a result of lower credit levels, including the advance repurchases by Ireland and Portugal. Non-lending income is also projected to be lower reflecting a further downward shift in SDR interest rates and, thus, returns on investments and interest-free resources. The updated expenditure path assumes the net administrative budget remains constant in real terms at the FY 2012 level. The long-run projections indicate a broad balance between income and expenditures, assuming that interest rates rise to 3.5 percent and with lending returning to pre-crisis levels.
The pace of reserve accumulation is expected to slow, reflecting the decline in Fund credit, and precautionary balances are now projected to remain slightly below the projected target of SDR 20 billion over the medium term compared with the earlier estimates.
The medium-term income projections have been updated since the last estimate provided to the Executive Board in April 2013. Lending income is higher compared with the earlier estimates as a result of new arrangements approved since April 2013. Non-lending income is lower primarily due to revised projections for investment income. The updated expenditure path assumes the net administrative budget remains constant in real terms at the FY 2014 level, implying a nominal medium-term path that is somewhat higher than in the April 2013 projections. Precautionary balances are projected to reach the current target of SDR 20 billion in FY 2018. The projections also illustrate a broad balance between income and expenditures even if lending were to return to pre-crisis levels.
The medium-term projections of Fund income and precautionary balances accumulation have been updated since the April 2012 projections. The overall income outlook remains positive with continued high lending income expected in the medium-term. The projections indicate a downward shift in the income path primarily due to lower non-lending income as a result of the low global interest rates and the agreement to phase in investments under the new gold-sales funded endowment. The updated expenditure path has not changed significantly. The projections also illustrate a broad balance between income and expenditures when lending returns to pre-crisis levels.
The accumulation of precautionary balances remains strong in the medium-term. The indicative medium-term target of SDR 20 billion is now expected to be reached by FY18–FY19.
This paper reviews the Fund’s income position for FY 2013 and FY 2014. The paper updates projections provided at the FY 2013 midyear review and proposes decisions for the current and next financial year. The paper includes a comprehensive review of the Fund’s income position as required under the new Rule I-6(4) adopted in December 2011 (see Box 1). Based on this review, no change in the margin for the rate of charge is proposed.
The paper is structured as follows: The first section reviews the FY 2013 income position and the main changes from the midyear projections; the second section makes proposals on the disposition of FY 2013 net income, and placement to reserves; the third section discusses the margin on the rate of charge for FY 2014, updates the income projections, and reviews the projected burden sharing adjustments; and the last section reviews special charges.
This paper reviews recent developments in the status of financing for the Fund’s concessional lending and debt relief. It presents the latest data available and projections whilst taking into account the pledges made thus far in response to the Managing Director’s fund-raising requests of August 2009 and February and November 2012. Additionally, following the Executive Board’s decision in September 2012, the PRGT’s self-sustained capacity is discussed in the context of longer-term projections of the demand for concessional lending.
Section II provides an overview of the Fund’s concessional lending instruments and the associated financing framework as well as the developments since the October 2012 Update. Section III reviews the sources of financing for PRGT operations and discusses developments in the PRGT framework. Section IV reviews the use of PRGT resources and assesses the Trust’s self-sustained capacity in light of the demand projections. Section V provides updates on the subsidization of emergency assistance, while Section VI presents the developments on the financing of debt relief under the HIPC, MDRI, and PCDR Trust. The paper concludes with a proposed decision completing the financing reviews of the PRG-HIPC and MDRI Trusts.
This paper presents updated projections on the Fund’s FY 2013 income position. The projected net income is now SDR 2.1 billion, slightly lower than the earlier projection of SDR 2.3 billion at the beginning of the year. The changes reflect lower projected disbursements under approved arrangements owing to delays in scheduled drawings and arrangements expected to expire with substantial undrawn balances, the expectation that funding of the gold endowment will not begin until FY 2014, and lower implicit returns on the Fund’s interest-free resources due to the prevailing interest rate environment.
This paper reviews the Fund’s income position for FY 2012 and FY 2013?14.1 The paper updates projections provided at the FY 2012 midyear review and proposes decisions for the current and next two financial years. These decisions include setting the margin for the rate of charge under the new Rule I-6(4) that the Executive Board adopted in December 2011.2 The new rule is based on principles endorsed by the Executive Board in April 2008 and that have guided decisions on setting the margin since FY 2009. Section II reviews the FY 2012 income position and main changes from the midyear projections; Section III makes proposals on the disposition of net income, and placement to reserves; Section IV discusses the margin on the rate of charge for FY 2013?14, the income outlook for that period, and projected burden sharing adjustments; and Section V reviews special charges.
On February 24, 2012, the Executive Board approved a partial distribution of the general reserve equivalent to SDR 700 million attributed to part of the gold sales windfall profits to all members in proportion to their quotas.
This paper revisits the use of the remaining gold sales windfall profits (SDR 1.75 billion). Directors previously considered three main options: using them as part of a strategy to boost the capacity of the PRGT; counting them towards precautionary balances; or investing them in the Investment Account’s endowment. In past discussions, Directors expressed a wide range of views on these options, and the resources have continued to be held in the Investment Account pending a decision by the Executive Board.
This paper proposes the distribution of a portion of the Fund’s general reserve that is attributed to profits from recent Fund gold sales. The proposed distribution is part of a strategy endorsed by the Board in July 2009 involving the use of resources linked to gold sale profits to facilitate members’ contributions towards Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) subsidies. The strategy was formulated in the context of a comprehensive reform of the Fund’s Low Income Country (LIC) facilities and concessional financing framework approved by the Executive Board that included a financing package aimed at ensuring the PRGT’s capacity to lend concessional resources of up to SDR 11.3 billion ($17 billion) during the period 2009–14. The financing package included an agreement to raise SDR 1.5 billion in subsidy resources, of which SDR 0.5–0.6 billion (in end-2008 NPV terms) was expected to be generated from resources linked to profits from gold sales.