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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The pandemic hit the Chilean economy while it was recovering from the 2019 social unrest. The authorities’ swift and strong economic policy efforts and Chile’s very strong institutional frameworks helped buffer the economic and social consequences. The ongoing economic recovery continues to be supported by ample policy stimulus, a rapid vaccination process, well-anchored inflation expectations, a resilient export base, and continued market confidence.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This paper discusses Malian mining taxation. Mali’s industrial mining sector is predominantly gold mining, with six industrial mines currently active. Most of the mines are old, but some have substantial reserves; extensions are planned for the Syama, Morila, Kalama, Tabakoto-Segela, and Loulo-Gounkoto mines. The Fiscal Analysis for Resource Industries model was completed for five new projects with recent feasibility studies. The government revenue contributed by the five new projects is on the order of US$1.7 billion (constant dollars) over the next 10 years. The application of the 1999 or 2012 Mining Code increases the government’s share of income in comparison with the 1991 code.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper explores key issues affecting the Indian economy and implications for fiscal, monetary, financial sector, and other structural policies. This paper evaluates the build-up of corporate and banking sector vulnerabilities in India, linked to the past macroeconomic slowdown and supply-side bottlenecks, particularly in the infrastructure sector; the nature, scope, and the effectiveness of macroprudential policies in India; the potential costs and benefits of gold monetization schemes in India; two recent episodes of financial market volatility—the taper tantrum of the summer of 2013 and the China spillover episode of the summer of 2015; effectiveness of India’s capital controls using an arbitrage based approach; the relationship between Indian; and international market prices of cereals.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the GDP growth of Chile has remained lackluster over the past year. The main force behind the economic slowdown in 2014 has been the sharp fall in private investment, mainly the consequence of the end of the mining boom, but also reflecting the uncertainty and adjustment costs associated with the structural reform agenda. The IMF staff expects growth to increase modestly to 2.5 percent in 2015, mainly thanks to strong fiscal support. Private domestic demand should strengthen somewhat in 2016, primarily as very simulative monetary conditions and a gradual recovery of business confidence sustain private investment.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Suriname’s macroeconomic conditions weakened in 2013 as gold and oil prices declined. With those prices falling below recent peaks, the large fiscal and external sector exposures to the mineral sector continued their deterioration in 2013, along with a significant decline in international reserves. Growth is estimated at a robust 4 percent in 2013, supported by fiscal relaxation and strong credit growth. Strong fiscal consolidation is being implemented in 2014, and the fiscal deficit is expected to decline to 3.7 percent of GDP this year. Public debt is rising but remains relatively low at about 30 percent of GDP.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Burkina Faso
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
KEY ISSUES Politics: President Bachelet won the Presidential election on a platform to foster inclusive growth and reduce inequality. Her government took office in March 2014 and is launching an ambitious policy agenda that includes important reforms in several areas, including taxation, education, productivity, and energy. Outlook and risks: Chile’s global environment is shifting, with a dimmer outlook for its main export, copper, and normalization of global monetary conditions. Growth has slowed markedly, resulting in a modest output gap. The peso has depreciated, feeding into inflation. Staff projects growth to bottom out in 2014 and then gradually recover. Key risks relate to a large and lasting drop in copper prices and global financial volatility. Policy mix: The freely floating peso is working as a shock absorber and will support the economic recovery. The policy mix with broadly neutral fiscal and accommodative monetary policy is appropriate. Room for further monetary easing has narrowed but space remains if domestic demand flounders, so long as inflation expectations remain well anchored. On fiscal, given the strong public finances, automatic stabilizers should be allowed to operate unimpeded and there is space for stimuli in the event of a major downturn. The commitment to close the structural fiscal deficit by 2018 is appropriate and should be phased in a way that avoids undue drag on the recovery. Should risks materialize, the freely floating currency is the first line of defense. Growth and equity reforms: Achieving strong growth while reducing inequality will require structural reforms. The authorities’ agenda focuses on the right areas but many details remain work in progress. Clarity on the details, timetables, and prioritization will reduce uncertainty and the risk of delays. Financial stability: Risks to financial stability appear contained, but it will be important to push through with regulatory reforms underway, including initiatives currently in Congress. Further effort will be needed to close regulatory gaps, in particular bank capital requirements, relative to international benchmarks.