In late 2015, the Chinese authorities launched a policy to reduce capacity in the coal and steel industries under the wider effort of Supply-Side Structural Reforms. Around the same time, producer price inflation in China started to pick up strongly after being trapped in negative territory for more than fifty consecutive months. So what is behind this strong reflation—capacity cuts in coal and steel, or a strengthening of aggregate demand? Our empirical analyses indicate that a pickup in aggregate demand, possibly due to the government’s stimulus package in 2015-16, was the more important driver. Capacity cuts played a role in propping up coal and steel prices, explaining at most 40 percent of their price increase.
This Technical Assistance Report evaluates the National Accounts Mission in Mongolia. Mongolia’s national accounts statistics were found to be broadly adequate for IMF surveillance according to the most recent IMF Staff Report. The National Statistics Office is commended for having compiled the existing GDP data and for continuing to implement the current international standard. However, several areas for further improvement in national accounts statistics should be incorporated into the work program. These include the need to secure the National Statistics Office’s new institutional structure and enhance its staff’s skills mix, improve coordination among stakeholders, and upgrade the survey forms currently in use in order to compile enhanced estimates of GDP.
This Technical Assistance report reviews South Africa’s tax system and also examines the fiscal regime with a view to generating a sustainable revenue contribution from mining and petroleum in future. Mining has historically been the mainstay of the South African economy. Mineral exports remain the principal contributor to foreign exchange earnings on the current account. South Africa is not yet a significant producer of crude oil or natural gas. Oil and gas exploration nevertheless shows promise. Taxation is far from top of the list in current challenges facing the development of extractive industries in South Africa. The national goal of economic and social transformation in favor of Historically Disadvantaged South Africans has major impact on the mining sector.
This paper discusses Burkina Faso’s Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for a new Three-Year ECF Arrangement. Economic activity in Burkina Faso continued to grow at a brisk pace in 2013. Program performance remains strong. Revenue performance remains on target, but is no longer overshooting targets as in recent years, while spending execution is below target. Almost all program targets were met, including on net domestic financing and the fiscal balance. All structural benchmarks slated for completion in June and September were also met. The IMF staff supports completion of the seventh review of the current ECF arrangement and the authorities’ request for a new three-year ECF arrangement with access equivalent to 45 percent of quota.
Despite the difficult global environment, economic growth in Mozambique has remained buoyant. Inflation has come down more rapidly than anticipated. Foreign direct investment in the natural resource sector has resulted in rapid import growth. The contribution of coal production and exports and the implementation of large infrastructure projects are projected to boost economic growth. However, capacity building is urgently needed for the country to secure full benefits from an imminent natural resource boom. New mining and hydrocarbon framework laws have also been prepared.
This paper analyzes Solomon Islands’ ongoing reforms concerning of the mineral taxation regime and the fiscal impact of mineral resources. The analysis shows that mineral revenue could be substantial, provided that mineral prices remain strong in the medium term. Enforcing the tax agreement with, a Gold Ridge company, and implementing the new resource taxation regime are critical to ensure that the forthcoming mineral wealth spills over to the rest of the economy. Solomon Islands should adopt new fiscal rules and fiscal responsibility provisions to manage large but volatile resource revenue.
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) review the macroeconomic impact of the resource sector. Lao PDR’s economic performance is becoming increasingly dependent on the activities of the large mining and hydropower projects. The economic value of the resource projects is significant, even if only proven mineral reserves and hydropower plants are considered. The overall macroeconomic impact of the resource sector over the medium term will depend on the quality and timeliness of the policies adopted to sustain the growth of the non-resource sector.
This Selected Issues paper examines recent economic developments in Sierra Leone. The paper highlights that the economic recovery in Sierra Leone has benefited especially from the extensive rehabilitation and humanitarian activities in liberated areas. Real GDP growth rose by 4 percent in 2000 and accelerated further in 2001 and 2002. The paper lays out some conceptual issues for the analysis of government debt sustainability, and discusses key issues related to long-term fiscal sustainability. The challenges ahead for rehabilitating Sierra Leone’s mining sector are also examined.