It has been two years since the trade tensions erupted and not only captured policymakers’ but also the research community’s attention. Research has quickly zoomed in on understanding trade war rhetoric, tariff implementation, and economic impacts. The first article in the December 2019 issue sheds light on the consequences of the recent trade barriers.
IMF Research Perspective (formerly published as IMF Research Bulletin) is a new, redesigned online newsletter covering updates on IMF research. In the inaugural issue of the newsletter, Hites Ahir interviews Valeria Cerra; and they discuss the economic environment 10 years after the global financial crisis. Research Summaries cover the rise of populism; economic reform; labor and technology; big data; and the relationship between happiness and productivity. Sweta C. Saxena was the guest editor for this inaugural issue.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & and Review Department
"The first data and statistics strategy for the Fund comes at a critical time. A fast-changing data landscape, new data needs for evolving surveillance priorities, and persisting data weaknesses across the membership pose challenges and opportunities for the Fund and its members. The challenges emerging from the digital revolution include an unprecedented amount of new data and measurement questions on growth, productivity, inflation, and welfare. Newly available granular and high-frequency (big) data offer the potential for more timely detection of vulnerabilities. In the wake of the crisis, Fund surveillance requires greater cross-country data comparability; staff and authorities face the complexity of integrating new data sources and closing data gaps, while working to address the weaknesses noted by the IEO Report (Behind the Scenes with Data at the IMF) in 2016.
The overarching strategy is to move toward an ecosystem of data and statistics that enables the Fund and its members to better meet the evolving data needs in a digital world. It integrates Fund-wide work streams on data provision to the Fund for surveillance purposes, international statistical standards, capacity development, and data management under a common institutional objective. It seeks seamless access and sharing of data within the Fund, enabling cloud-based data dissemination to support data provision by member countries (e.g., the “global data commons”), closing data gaps with new sources including Big Data, and improving assessments of data adequacy for surveillance to help better prioritize capacity development. The Fund also will work with policymakers to understand the implications of the digital economy and digital data for the macroeconomic statistics, including new measures of welfare beyond GDP."
Eric A. Posner, Viktor Mayer-Schönberger, Thomas Ramge, and John Tutino
ECONOMICS SAYS THAT bailouts are bad because they beget moral hazard—that is, they shield those involved from risk, which encourages recklessness. Politics seems to agree: the no-more-bailouts sentiment was a driving force behind the 2010 massive US financial reform legislation known as the Dodd-Frank Act. The global financial crisis’s 10th anniverary raises the question of whether we are better poised to deal with future crises. Eric Posner’s response is a resounding no.
This paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile,
Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps:
(i) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade
shocks and (ii) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices.
The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to
help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing
depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front,
evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like in Chile and Peru, gives more room for
accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.