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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Over the last three decades, Poland achieved a significant reduction in carbon emissions despite rapidly growing economic activity. Nevertheless, Poland remains one of the biggest GHG emitters in Europe, with the 20th largest carbon footprint globally. Poland accounts for 0.9 percent of global emissions, broadly at par with Poland’s share in the global economy. Coal is the mainstay of the energy sector and remains prevalent in household heating. The recently adopted government strategy envisages significant emissions reductions, underpinned by large investment outlays, while increasingly ambitious EU climate policy and high carbon emissions prices create pressure to accelerate decarbonization efforts. The energy transition and the associated changes in key prices will have profound social and economic implications and may need to be accompanied by actions to protect the most vulnerable groups from having to shoulder an undue burden.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

1. The Moroccan economy is rebounding from last year’s severe recession (Figure 1). After falling 6.3 percent in 2020, output has grown at an average of close to 8 percent in the first two quarters of 2021. The better-than-average harvest has boosted agricultural output after two consecutive years of drought. The successful vaccination campaign has helped the country overcome the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases experienced over the summer, although cases have picked up in early 2022 due to the rapid spread of the Omicron variant, and mobility has returned to pre-pandemic levels (Figure 2). This has supported consumption, together with strong remittances and accommodative monetary and fiscal policy stances. Base effects and cost pressures from supply disruptions and higher commodity prices have pushed inflation upwards, but average headline and core inflation remain low (at 1.2 percent and 1.5 percent in November, respectively). Despite having recovered most of the jobs lost in 2020, the unemployment rate was still 11.8 percent in 2021Q3, 1.6 percentage points above pre-pandemic level, driven by a rebound of the participation rate.