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Mr. Tobias Adrian, Mr. Patrick Bolton, and Alissa M. Kleinnijenhuis
We measure the gains from phasing out coal as the social cost of carbon times the quantity of avoided emissions. By comparing the present value of the benefits from avoided emissions against the present value of costs of ending coal plus the costs of replacing it with renewable energy, our baseline estimate is that the world can realize a net gain of 77.89 trillion USD. This represents around 1.2% of current world GDP every year until 2100. The net benefits from ending coal are so large that renewed efforts, carbon pricing, and other financing policies we discuss, should be pursued.
Jaden Kim and Mr. Adil Mohommad
This brief paper accompanies the Green Energy and Jobs tool, which is a simple excel-based tool to estimate the job-creation potential of greening the electricity sector. Specifically, it calculates the net job gains or losses from increasing the level of energy efficiency, and from increasing the share of clean and renewable electricity generation in the total electricity output mix. The tool relies on estimates of job multipliers in the literature, and adds evidence from firm-level data on the job-intensity of different energy sources. The paper illustrates applications of the tool using data from the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario compared to business-as-usual. This tool is intended to help country teams engage further on climate change issues in bilateral surveillance.
Jaden Kim and Mr. Adil Mohommad

This brief paper accompanies the Green Energy and Jobs tool, which is a simple excel-based tool to estimate the job-creation potential of greening the electricity sector. Specifically, it calculates the net job gains or losses from increasing the level of energy efficiency, and from increasing the share of clean and renewable electricity generation in the total electricity output mix. The tool relies on estimates of job multipliers in the literature, and adds evidence from firm-level data on the job-intensity of different energy sources. The paper illustrates applications of the tool using data from the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario compared to business-as-usual. This tool is intended to help country teams engage further on climate change issues in bilateral surveillance.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Over the last three decades, Poland achieved a significant reduction in carbon emissions despite rapidly growing economic activity. Nevertheless, Poland remains one of the biggest GHG emitters in Europe, with the 20th largest carbon footprint globally. Poland accounts for 0.9 percent of global emissions, broadly at par with Poland’s share in the global economy. Coal is the mainstay of the energy sector and remains prevalent in household heating. The recently adopted government strategy envisages significant emissions reductions, underpinned by large investment outlays, while increasingly ambitious EU climate policy and high carbon emissions prices create pressure to accelerate decarbonization efforts. The energy transition and the associated changes in key prices will have profound social and economic implications and may need to be accompanied by actions to protect the most vulnerable groups from having to shoulder an undue burden.