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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Jamaica’s Sixth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). All quantitative performance criteria, indicative targets, and the structural benchmark at end-June were met, marking a successful completion of the SBA. Discussions centered on policies to lock-in macroeconomic stability and advance supply-side reforms to promote inclusive growth, including: building institutions and advancing fiscal reforms to safeguard and sustain economic stability and debt reduction; improving monetary operations and policy transmission; and bolstering financial inclusion, access to credit, and formality. Most structural policy commitments are on track, although some key reforms to public sector transformation, the compensation framework for public employees, legislation to establish a fiscal council, and creating a special resolution regime for financial institutions have been delayed due to capacity constraints and the need to build stakeholder support for these reforms. Important gains have been made in the oversight of financial institutions.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper examines the degree to which inflation co-moves between India and a panel of countries in Asia. The paper shows that the considerable co-movement in headline inflation rates between India and Nepal is driven almost exclusively by food-inflation co-movement. By contrast, the role for inflation spillovers emanating from India in driving non-food inflation in Nepal appears limited. The implication is that Nepal should rely on domestic monetary policy rather than stable inflation in India to achieve stable domestic inflation. The main takeaway from the results is that food inflation co-movement between India and other countries is higher in cases where the co-movement in rainfall deviations from seasonal norms is highest. Since core inflation co-movement is weak, idiosyncratic domestic factors such as economic slack, exchange-rate movements, and differing degrees of passthrough from food- and energy-price shocks play an important role. This finding is critically important for monetary policy, especially since domestic policy is primarily effective only in controlling core inflation. Thus, domestic monetary policy needs to be calibrated to domestic inflationary pressures—Nepal cannot necessarily rely on stable inflation in India to achieve stable domestic inflation.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) is highly dependent on external aid. Following a recession in FY2006–08, the FSM economy has grown by 2–2½ percent for FY2010 and FY2011. The economy remains dependent on the large public sector, although the fisheries and agriculture sectors have shown signs of growth. Despite some deterioration in current account balance, external balance also has sustained a stable flow of official transfers. However, economic growth is likely to slow in the near term owing to a decline in public sector demand.
International Monetary Fund
This 2011 Article IV Consultation highlights that the difficult global economic conditions continue to hit Barbados with growth at anemic levels. The current account deficit has widened in recent times owing to higher oil and food prices. Executive Directors commended the authorities for adopting a revised Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy aimed at generating a balanced budget. They emphasized that fiscal consolidation should focus on expenditure reduction, including lowering the wage bill, reducing transfers to public enterprises, and minimizing tax exemptions.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses El Salvador’s Request for a Stand-By Arrangement and cancellation of the current arrangement. The program seeks to preserve financial stability, safeguard the economic recovery, and strengthen the medium-term fiscal position. Fiscal policy will aim at offsetting the impact of the adverse external environment on domestic activity and the most vulnerable while ensuring debt sustainability over the medium term. IMF financial support would have a catalytic role for official creditors and private investors. It would also provide a liquidity buffer to help absorb any potential shocks to the financial system.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Seychelles. The program is on track, and macroeconomic stabilization has advanced rapidly. The authorities continue to implement the program with a high degree of ownership and success. All quantitative performance criteria (PC) and structural benchmarks at end-September 2009 were met. The structural reform effort is progressing well. Key progress has been made on public financial management, notably through the treasury single account. The 2010 budget features a much improved and complete presentation of government finance.
International Monetary Fund
Tanzania’s performance ranks among the best for non-oil exporting countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The 2008/09 budget will aim at maintaining hard-won fiscal stability in the face of large spending needs and uncertain financing. Tighter budget constraints highlight the need to further expand the revenue base and achieve greater efficiency and effectiveness of government spending. Building on its recent success of reining in reserve money growth, the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) will aim to gradually bring down inflation to its medium-term objective of 5 percent.
International Monetary Fund
Peru’s macroeconomic policies continue to be strong under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Executive Directors appreciated the implementation of policies to entrench macroeconomic stability, lower poverty, and lessen vulnerabilities, and also emphasized the need to maintain a prudent fiscal policy stance, implement structural reforms, solidify the fiscal framework, and accelerate the implementation of the antipoverty strategy. They also stressed the need to entrench greater exchange rate flexibility, strengthen the inflation, preserve a prudent role for public banks, and enhance the business environment.
International Monetary Fund
Fueled by a rebound in agriculture and improved electricity supply, economic growth reached 6.7 percent in 2006–07, and is on track to exceed 7 percent in 2007–08. In mid-2007, significant portfolio capital inflows put pressure on liquidity management. In the first quarter of 2007–08, fiscal performance was strong, but inflationary pressures intensified. After continuing to depreciate in most of 2007, the exchange rate recently reversed course. Strengthening monetary control is the key to reducing inflationary pressures and reining in high and volatile T-bill rates.
International Monetary Fund
The staff report for the 2006 Article IV Consultation on Antigua and Barbuda highlights the economic backdrop and outlook for restoring sound public finances. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has adopted an ambitious reform program in its endeavor to pull the economy from decades of fiscal weakness and declining growth rates. The tax reform, including the imminent implementation of the value-added tax, is a major achievement. At the same time, it will be important to strengthen tax administration and tax compliance.