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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Macao SAR’s growth is expected to remain strong in the near term despite the recent slowdown. Continued recovery of the gaming sector will shape Macao SAR’s near-term outlook. A stronger slump in the Mainland’s property sector and higher-for-longer interest rates in the major economies are the main short-term risks to the outlook. The secular growth slowdown in Mainland China could weigh on Macao SAR’s medium-term growth. Moreover, medium-term growth could be adversely affected by extreme climate events. The authorities have stepped up their efforts to diversify Macao SAR’s economy, which, if successful, could mitigate some of the risks to the medium-term growth.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

1. China’s reopening breathed life into Macao SAR’s pandemic-hit economy.1 Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, annual real GDP in 2022 was 56 percent below the level of GDP recorded during 2019. The end of the containment measures in Mainland China in late 2022 resulted in a significant return of tourists in 2023, with arrivals reaching 72 percent of their 2019 level, and reinvigorated the gaming sector. Nevertheless, real GDP level in 2023 was still 20 percent below the 2019 level.

International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept., International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept., and International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This paper provides the basis for the quinquennial review by the Executive Board of the method of valuation of the Special Drawing Right (SDR). The review covers the composition and weighting of the SDR currency basket, and the financial instruments used to determine the SDR interest rate. In the five-year period for this review (2017‒21), developments in key variables relevant for the SDR valuation suggest that there have been no major changes in the roles of currencies in the world economy. The countries and the currency union (euro area) whose currencies are currently included in the SDR basket remain the five largest exporters and their currencies continue to account for the majority of international financial transactions. Moreover, staff analysis finds that the COVID-19 pandemic and recent fintech developments have no systematic or material impact on the SDR valuation. The paper proposes to maintain the current composition of the SDR currency and interest rate baskets, as well as the method for determining the currency weights and currency amounts in the basket. In line with the Board-approved methodology, the paper proposes updated weights for the currencies in the SDR basket. These maintain the same ranking of the initial weights set in the 2015 review, with slightly higher weights for the U.S. dollar and the Chinese renminbi and, accordingly, somewhat lower weights for the British pound, the euro, and the Japanese yen. The paper also proposes to make explicit the treatment of data gaps in the SDR valuation framework. Findings from a survey of SDR department participants and prescribed holders are used to follow up on operational issues raised in earlier valuation reviews. The new SDR valuation and interest rate baskets are proposed to come into effect on August 1, 2022 for a period of five years.