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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Recent developments, outlook, and risks. Kosovo’s economy has continued to perform well, despite a challenging external environment. Real GDP growth moderated to 3¼ percent in 2023 amid subdued external demand. Inflation has decelerated sharply, reaching 2 percent y/y in the first quarter of 2024. Growth is projected to accelerate to 3¾ percent in 2024, driven by domestic demand. Key risks to the outlook include commodity price spikes due to geopolitical tensions, weaker activity in advanced European economies, and an escalation of tensions in northern Kosovo.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

1. Kosovo’s economy continues to expand, but growth momentum has slowed. Negative spillovers from subdued growth in key trading partners and countries where the Kosovar diaspora is concentrated (e.g., Germany, Switzerland), are weighing on activity. Monetary policy tightening in the euro area has been gradually transmitting into higher interest rates in Kosovo’s fully-euroized economy. Lower energy and food prices have improved terms of trade and helped reduce inflation. The recent EU visa liberalization could affect the labor force and deepen skill shortages, resulting in lower medium-term growth.1 Based on the experience of other Western Balkan countries, the initial impact of visa liberalization may be moderate. However, Kosovo is already facing sizeable emigration outflows, which are a drag on potential growth. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place in early 2025.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

On behalf of the Kosovo authorities, I thank Mr. Sosa and his team for the productive discussions and the well-structured comprehensive report, which confirms the authorities' strong program implementation and ownership both under the SBA and the RSF. Given the strong fiscal outcome, the authorities will continue to treat the SBA as precautionary.

International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance report on the Republic of Kosovo presents details of residential property price index (RPPI) mission. The authorities are strongly committed to developing a publicly available RPPI for Kosovo. Transactions data from real-estate companies should be used for the development of the RPPI. The mission assessed the advantages and disadvantages of each available data source. A large real estate company has agreed to provide a dataset to the Kosovo Agency of Statistics (KAS). Pro Real Estate accounts for approximately 60 percent of the residential property market in Kosovo. The KAS should assess the quality of the data and its suitability for use in the compilation of the RPPI. The mission described the practical aspects of assessing the suitability and quality of the dataset. The KAS should assess whether it needs to supplement the data with information from other real estate companies to increase the geographical coverage. The mission increased capacity and knowledge the KAS staff on the methods for RPPI compilation. The main topics covered in the meetings included data visualization, assessing data quality, stratification, weights, subindex calculation and aggregation to high-level indices.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted from June 5 to June 9, 2023, to assist the Kosovo Agency of Statistics (KAS) with the initial stages of the development of a Residential Property Price Index (RPPI). This was the first mission to Kosovo dedicated to the RPPI. The mission completed the following tasks: (i) examined all potential data sources (ii) contributed to capacity building by providing training on RPPI compilation (iii) agreed next steps for the development of the RPPI and (iv) assessed the required resources for RPPI development.

Michelle Stone, Sage De Clerck, Yasemin Hurcan, Taz Chaponda, Willie Du Preez, and Thomas Ekeli
Kosovo is working to improve its public investment management to support future economic growth and improvements in wellbeing. This assessment applies the IMF Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) framework, including the Climate-PIMA module. It finds that there have been improvements in Kosovo’s public investment management institutions since the original 2015 PIMA assessment. Nonetheless, there is room to continue to strengthen public investment management institutions and their climate sensitivity in Kosovo