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Cover IMF Working Papers
The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery: Uptick or Renaissance?
Oya Celasun, Gabriel Di Bella, Tim Mahedy, and Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
The notable rebound of U.S. manufacturing activity following the Great Recession has raised the question of whether the sector might be experiencing a renaissance. Using panel regressions, we find that a depreciating real exchange rate, an increasing spread in natural gas prices between the United States and other G-7 countries, and in particular decreasing unit labor costs have had a positive impact on U.S. manufacturing production. While we find it unlikely for manufacturing to become a main engine of growth in the United States, we find that U.S. manufacturing exports could provide nonnegligible growth opportunities going forward.
Keywords:
WP; cost; production; price; durable goods; U.S. manufacturing sector; durable and nondurable subsectors; Global Financial Crisis; shale gas; unit labor cost; exchange rate; growth; U.S relative; nondurable goods; durable goods production; per capita income; share of U.S.; Manufacturing; Real effective exchange rates; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Labor costs; Fuel prices; Global; Asia and Pacific