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Mr. Anil Ari
I propose a dynamic general equilibrium model in which strategic interactions between banks and depositors may lead to endogenous bank fragility and slow recovery from crises. When banks' investment decisions are not contractible, depositors form expectations about bank risk-taking and demand a return on deposits according to their risk. This creates strategic complementarities and possibly multiple equilibria: in response to an increase in funding costs, banks may optimally choose to pursue risky portfolios that undermine their solvency prospects. In a bad equilibrium, high funding costs hinder the accumulation of bank net worth, leading to a persistent drop in investment and output. I bring the model to bear on the European sovereign debt crisis, in the course of which under-capitalized banks in defaultrisky countries experienced an increase in funding costs and raised their holdings of domestic government debt. The model is quantified using Portuguese data and accounts for macroeconomic dynamics in Portugal in 2010-2016. Policy interventions face a trade-off between alleviating banks' funding conditions and strengthening risk-taking incentives. Liquidity provision to banks may eliminate the good equilibrium when not targeted. Targeted interventions have the capacity to eliminate adverse equilibria.
Christoph Aymanns, Carlos Caceres, Christina Daniel, and Miss Liliana B Schumacher
Understanding the interaction between bank solvency and funding cost is a crucial pre-requisite for stress-testing. In this paper we study the sensitivity of bank funding cost to solvency measures while controlling for various other measures of bank fundamentals. The analysis includes two measures of bank funding cost: (a) average funding cost and (b) interbank funding cost as a proxy of wholesale funding cost. The main findings are: (1) Solvency is negatively and significantly related to measures of funding cost, but the effect is small in magnitude. (2) On average, the relationship is stronger for interbank funding cost than for average funding cost. (3) During periods of stress interbank funding cost is more sensitive to solvency than in normal times. Finally, (4) the relationship between funding cost and solvency appears to be non-linear, with higher sensitivity of funding cost at lower levels of solvency.
Mr. Jörg Decressin, Mr. Wim Fonteyne, and Mr. Hamid Faruqee

Abstract

By and large, EU financial integration has been a success story. Still, the reform agenda is far from finished. What are the remaining challenges? What are the gains of closer financial market integration? This IMF book tracks the European Union's journey along the path to a single financial market and identifies the challenges and priorities that remain ahead. It pays particular attention to the most recent integration efforts in the European Union following the introduction of the euro. The study looks at the importance of financial integration, in particular for economic growth, the interplay between banks and markets, and equity market integration. It closely examines the relationship between financial integration and financial stability. This interaction presents the European Union with a challenge, but also with the opportunity to play a pioneering role in developing a regional approach to financial stability that could provide lessons for the rest of the world.

Mr. Martin Cihak and Mr. Jörg Decressin
Most financial institutions in the European Union (EU) are still based in one country, but a number of large financial institutions (LCFI) have systemic cross-border exposures. The paper explains how, despite much progress, nationally-segmented supervisory frameworks and national accountability for financial stability hinder optimization across borders of banks' operations and efficient and effective LCFI supervision. A full-fledged EU-level prudential regime that operates along-side national regimes--a European Banking Charter (EBC)--could harness market forces to establish a level playing field for financial sector competition, while plugging some significant gaps in Europe's financial stability framework without concentrating excessive powers.
Mr. Haizhou Huang and Chenggang Xu
Financial crises are endogenized through corporate and interbank market institutions. Single-bank financing leads to a pooling equilibrium in the interbank market. With private information about one’s own solvency, the best illiquid banks will not borrow but rather will liquidate some premature assets. The withdrawals of the best banks from the interbank market may lead more solvent but illiquid banks to withdraw from the market, until the interbank market collapses. However, multi-bank financing leads to a separating equilibrium in the interbank market. Thus, bank runs are limited to illiquid and insolvent banks, and idiosyncratic shocks never trigger a contagious bank run.
Mr. Qaizar Hussain and Clas Wihlborg
This paper explores insolvency and debt recovery procedures, and political, legal, and institutional factors influencing financial decisions of corporations and banks during pre-crisis years in six Asian economies. It also examines whether these factors may have contributed to the depth and duration of the 1997 crisis. There are two key findings: First, bank behavior and other institutional factors, and not the nature of stakeholder orientation, seem to explain variations in capital structures and the depth of recessions across economies. Second, aspects of insolvency procedures favoring rehabilitation of “financially distressed” firms seem to explain well the expected duration of the crisis.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus recently spoke with the editors of the IMF Survey about events over the past 13 years, as well as about future developments in the international monetary system and the evolution of the IMF. The interview will be published in two parts—the first, which follows, focuses on developments since 1987. The second part, which looks to the future, will be published in the next issue of the IMF Survey, dated January 10, 2000.
Mr. Robert C. Effros

Abstract

This volume, edited by Robert C. Effros, surveys developments at international financial institutions, regional developments affecting central banks, the progress of the European Union countries toward monetary union and a unified banking market, the effect of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the World Trade Organization on banking services, and the implications of the North American Free Trade Agreement for central banks. Other topics discussed include banking regulation and reform in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, countries of the former Soviet Union, and China; banking supervision; the role of deposit insurance; bankruptcy policy; derivatives; securitization; payments systems; securities transfers; and capital standards for market risk. Appendices reproduce relevant legal documentation.