Mr. Ales Bulir, Daniel Baksa, Mr. Juan S Corrales, Andres Gonzalez, Diego Rodriguez, and Dyna Heng
This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following issues: • Evaluating the full implications from the policies adopted to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy requires a well-developed macroeconomic framework. This note illustrates how such frameworks were used to analyze Colombia and Cambodia's shock impact at the beginning of the pandemic. • The use of macroeconomic frameworks is not to infer general policy conclusions from abstract models or empirical analysis but to help policymakers think through and articulate coherent forecasts, scenarios, and policy responses. • The two country cases illustrate how to construct a baseline scenario consistent with a COVID-19 shock within structural macroeconomic models. The scenario is built gradually to incorporate the available information, the pandemic's full effects, and the policy responses. • The results demonstrate the value of combining close attention to the data, near-term forecasting, and model-based analyses to support coherent policies.
Articles in the March 2015 Research Bulletin focus on the oil market, energy subsidies, and output. The Research Summary on "An Exploration in Deep Corners of the Oil Market," authored by Rabah Arezki, Douglas Laxton, Armen Nurekyan, and Hou Wang, examines fluctuations in oil prices. "The State Budget May Afford It All," by Christian Ebeke and Constant Lonkeng Ngbouana, reviews energy subsidies and their fiscal, distributional, and environmental costs. In the “Q&A” column Pau Rabanal takes a look at “Seven Questions on Potential Output.” The Bulletin includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, recommended readings from IMF Publications, and a call for papers for the next Annual Research Conference. A link with information and free access to IMF Economic Review is also included.
This 2009 Article IV Consultation underlies that following a decade of high economic growth and significant poverty reduction, Cambodia’s economy has been hard hit by the global crisis. Real GDP is contracting as key sectors falter—export and tourism receipts have fallen off sharply, reflecting a narrow production base, high concentration of exports, and softening external demand. In response to the slowdown, policies have been eased significantly. Executive Directors have emphasized the need to reduce the domestic financing component of the fiscal deficit while reprioritizing expenditure to protect vulnerable groups.
This 2007 Article IV Consultation underlies that strong macroeconomic policies have enabled Cambodia to achieve impressive growth and make inroads into poverty. Supported by prudent fiscal and monetary policies that have strengthened the economy’s resilience to shocks, growth has averaged more than 9 percent since 2000, accelerating in recent years. Progress has been made on structural reforms but much remains to be done. Efforts in the fiscal and financial sectors are bearing fruit, with notable achievements being the implementation of new government expenditure and accounting procedures and strengthened prudential regulations for the banking sector.
Este folleto (que actualiza las Directrices de 1995 para el ajuste fiscal) presenta el enfoque del FMI con respecto al ajuste fiscal, y se centra en la importancia de la solidez de las finanzas públicas para promover la estabilidad macroeconómica y el crecimiento. Está estructurado en torno a cinco preguntas prácticas: cuándo realizar un ajuste, cómo evaluar la situación fiscal, cuáles son los factores que determinan el éxito del ajuste, cómo realizar el ajuste y qué instituciones facilitan el ajuste. Aborda temas tales como las políticas tributarias, la sostenibilidad de la deuda, las leyes de responsabilidad fiscal y la transparencia.
Cette brochure (qui actualise la brochure initiale de 1995, « Ajustement budgétaire : principes directeurs ») présente la démarche du FMI en matière d’ajustement budgétaire et le rôle qu’une position saine des finances publiques joue dans la recherche de la stabilité macroéconomique et de la croissance. Elle aborde des thèmes tels que la politique fiscale, la viabilité de la dette, la réglementation de la responsabilité budgétaire et la transparence. Elle est structurée autour de cinq questions : quand faut-il mettre en œuvre l’ajustement budgétaire ? Comment faut-il évaluer la position budgétaire ? Comment assurer la réussite de l’ajustement budgétaire ? Comment mettre en œuvre l’ajustement budgétaire? Comment les institutions peuvent-elles appuyer l’ajustement budgétaire ?
The pamphlet (which updates the 1995 Guidelines for Fiscal Adjustment) presents the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment, and focuses on the role that sound government finances play in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Structured around five practical questions—when to adjust, how to assess the fiscal position, what makes for successful adjustment, how to carry out adjustment, and which institutions can help—it covers topics such as tax policies, debt sustainability, fiscal responsibility laws, and transparency.
This paper aims to inform policymakers, and other interested parties, about the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment. The approach focuses on the role of sound and sustainable government finances in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Achieving, and maintaining, such a fiscal position often requires adjusting fiscal policy, as well as strengthening fiscal institutions. Fiscal adjustment may involve either tightening or loosening the fiscal stance, depending on individual country circumstances.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx