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You are looking at 1 - 10 of 13 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Arab Emirates: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
capital market development; firm Level TFP growth; productivity in the UAE; implementation date; money market rate; monetary policy transmission; corridor system; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Structural reforms; Money markets; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Turkey: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Turkey assesses the role of structural reforms in enhancing productivity growth in advanced and emerging economies and discusses results that are relevant for Turkey. The paper investigates the role of structural reforms in boosting productivity growth and describes the stochastic frontier set-up for analyzing factors that affect output through technical efficiency; and subsequently presents empirical results. It also simulates productivity gains from closing the structural reform gaps between Turkey and its benchmark. Structural reforms to improve hiring and firing regulations, the business and regulatory environment, and skills are found to have the largest estimated long-term productivity gains for Turkey. In order to bolster Turkey’s sustainable medium-term growth prospects, structural reforms should be implemented sooner rather than later, and any possible negative reform impacts in the short run could be limited by a reform sequencing and reform complementarities.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; center; pay-productivity alignment; production function; productivity gain; B. technical efficiency; policy prioritization; product market efficiency; IMF staff; Structural reforms; Commodity markets; Labor market flexibility; Competition; Total factor productivity; Eastern Europe
Cover World Economic Outlook, October 2019
World Economic Outlook, October 2019
Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.

Keywords:
WEO; emerging market; fiscal policy; economy; monetary policy; advanced economy; federal funds rate; governance index; federal state; core inflation; AE country level; labor market adjustment; firm productivity; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Labor productivity; Labor markets; Inflation; Tariffs; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
After a sharp slowdown starting in 2018, euro area growth is expected to recover over the course of 2019. However, mounting downside risks from global trade tensions, a no-deal Brexit, and market concerns about countries with high public debt emphasize the precarious nature of the forecast. Even in the absence of a major shock, there is a danger that the area could enter a prolonged period of anemic growth and inflation. Policies should focus on supporting growth while also reducing vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; single market; euro; policy; tailored monetary policy; EU institution; EU policymaker; IMF country team; Inflation; Labor markets; Productivity; Competition; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Market Regulation, Cycles and Growth in a Monetary Union
Mirko Abbritti and Mr. Sebastian Weber
We build a two-country currency union DSGE model with endogenous growth to assess the role of cross-country differences in product and labor market regulations for long-term growth and for the adjustment to shocks. We show that with endogenous growth, there is no reason to expect real income convergence. Large shocks, through endogenous TFP movements, can lead to permanent changes of output and real exchange rates. Differences are exacerbated when member countries have different product and labor market regulations. Less regulated economies are likely to have higher trend growth and recover faster from negative shocks. Results are consistent with higher inflation, lower employment and disappointing TFP growth rates experienced in the less reform-friendly euro area members.
Keywords:
WP; labor market; Currency union; endogenous growth; labor and product market regulation; R&D investment; product market regulation; business cycle; risk premium shock; TFP dynamics; Total factor productivity; Return on investment; Labor markets; Commodity markets; Inflation; Northern Europe; Southern Europe
Cover World Economic Outlook, April 2018
World Economic Outlook, April 2018
Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

This report describes the world economic outlook as of April 2018, projecting that advanced economies will continue to expand above their potential growth rates before decelerating, while growth in emerging markets in developing economies will rise before leveling off. It details global prospects and policies, including risks to the forecast, and essential determinants of long-term economic growth: labor force participation in advanced economies, the declining share of manufacturing jobs globally and in advanced economies, and the process through which innovative activity and technological knowledge spread across national borders.

Keywords:
WEO; economy; emerging market; monetary policy; productivity growth; labor force; advanced economy; commodity exporter; Labor force participation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Manufacturing; Productivity; Global; Middle East; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; employment share; core inflation; IMF staff calculation; Inflation; Europe; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Competitiveness and Wage Bargaining Reform in Italy
Mr. Alvar Kangur
The growth of Italian exports has lagged that of euro area peers. Against the backdrop of unit labor costs that have risen faster than those in euro area peers, this paper examines whether there is a competitiveness challenge in Italy and evaluates the framework of wage bargaining. Wages are set at the sectoral level and extended nationally. However, they do not respond well to firm-specific productivity, regional disparities, or skill mismatches. Nominally rigid wages have also implied adjustment through lower profits and employment. Wage developments explain about 45 percent of the manufacturing unit labor cost gap with Germany. In a search-and-match DSGE model of the Italian labor market, this paper finds substantial gains from moving from sectoral- to firm-level wage setting of at least 3.5 percentage points lower unemployment (or higher employment) rate and a notable improvement in Italy’s competitiveness over the medium term.
Keywords:
WP; labor market; productivity differential; export price; wage bargaining; zombie firm; Italy; competitiveness; exchange rate; labor costs; exports; labor market reforms; search and matching; DSGE models; wage-productivity differential; wage dispersion; wage distribution; wage externality; real value; wage markup; negotiated wage limit; institutions in Italy; market share; frontier firm TFP level; sectoral wage agreement; wage agreement; Wages; Productivity; Labor markets; Competition; Global; Europe
Cover Africa on the Move
Africa on the Move
Unlocking the Potential of Small Middle-Income States
Mr. Lamin Y Leigh and Mr. Ali M. Mansoor

Abstract

This book describes the reforms needed to move small middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa to advanced-economy status. The result of intense discussions with public officials in the countries covered, the book blends rigorous theory, econometrics, and practitioners' insights to come up with practical recommendations for policymakers. It spans topics from macroeconomic vulnerability and reserve adequacy to labor market institutions and financial inclusion. The book is a must-read for researchers interested in the economic issues facing developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords:
BOOK; government; reserve; Small Middle-Income Country; TFP growth; public employment; country authorities; design reserves management policy; bank distress; SMICs in sub-Saharan Africa; SMIC government; Total factor productivity; Public employment; Labor markets; Financial sector stability; Financial inclusion; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Eastern Europe; Africa; Southern Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This note presents estimates of potential growth and the output gap in Latvia. The estimates suggest that the output has marked below potential in the early 2000s but the output gap becomes positive and large after EU accession. With unemployment still well above its natural level, the output gap is estimated to be negative in 2012, but is expected to narrow gradually and be closed in the next 3–4 years. Potential growth is expected to be substantially lower than in 2002–07.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; estimate; labor market; output gap estimate; crisis; unemployment gap; vocational education; output gap in Latvia; Output gap; Potential output; Unemployment rate; Labor markets; Europe; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues Paper presents an analysis of Belarus-specific conditions and cross-country research, and proposes a roadmap for real-sector reforms. It highlights distortions resulting from the government’s interference in the economy, and presents an overview of economic benefits of deregulation, labor market liberalization, and enterprise reform. The paper also provides estimates of potential gains for Belarus from conducting structural reforms, and offers a blueprint for restructuring while minimizing the risks of resource dislocation.
Keywords: