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Diego A. Cerdeiro and Dmitry Plotnikov
The effect that the recent decline in the price of oil has had on growth is far from clear, with many observers at odds to explain why it does not seem to have provided a significant boost to the world economy. This paper aims to address this puzzle by providing a systematic analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on growth for 72 countries comprising 92.8% of world GDP. We find that, on net, shocks driving the oil price in 2015 shaved off 0.2 percentage points of growth for the median country in our sample, and 0.17 percentage points in GDP-weighted terms. While increases in oil supply and shocks to oil-specific demand actually boosted growth in 2015 (by about 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively), weak global demand more than offset these gains, reducing growth by 0.8 percentage points. Counterfactual simulations for the 72 countries in our sample underscore the importance of diversification, rather than low levels of openness, in shielding against negative shocks to the world economy.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the Iraqi oil sector and analyzes the developments and prospects after the twin shock. The Iraqi economy was affected by the two major challenges during 2014—ISIS insurgency and the fall in global oil prices. Iraq’s oil sector has performed well despite the security challenges that emerged after the onset of the ISIS insurgency in June 2014. On average, Iraq earned $97 per barrel on oil exported in 2014. Asia remained the leading destination of the Iraqi oil exports during 2013–14, and its share increased from 50 percent in 2012 to 65 percent in 2014.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.


This issue discusses economic developments in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP), which continue to reflect the diversity of conditions prevailing across the region. Most high-income oil exporters, primarily in the GCC, continue to record steady growth and solid economic and financial fundamentals, albeit with medium-term challenges that need to be addressed. In contrast, other countries—Iraq, Libya, and Syria—are mired in conflicts with not only humanitarian but also economic consequences. And yet other countries, mostly oil importers, are making continued but uneven progress in advancing their economic agendas, often in tandem with political transitions and amidst difficult social conditions. In most of these countries, without extensive economic and structural reforms, economic prospects for the medium term remain insufficient to reduce high unemployment and improve living standards.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Iraq discusses medium-term projections for oil production and exports. Constraints to oil export volumes arise from export bottlenecks and technical production issues. Production is held back by technical challenges such as the need for water injection in the southern oil fields and limited supply of electricity, of which the oil industry is one of the main consumers. Export infrastructure has suffered during many years of decay owing to sanctions and wars. The Iraqi crude is priced as an average of a benchmark oil price for 15 or 30 days from the bill of lading.
International Monetary Fund
The note gives statistical data on Aruba with regard to indicators of tourism activity, components of GDP, real GDP, contributions to real GDP, growth, changes in consumer price index, and legal minimum wages. The statistical data of operations of the central government, operational budget of the social insurance bank, financial balance, balance of payments summary, non-oil balance of payments summary are detailed. The balance sheets of bank-like institutions, life insurance companies, and pension funds are given along with utilities housing mortgage statistics.
International Monetary Fund
The statistical data on indicators of tourism activity, gross domestic product (GDP) and components, real GDP, contributions to real GDP growth, changes in consumer price index and legal minimum wages in Aruba are detailed. Summary of trends in public finance, tax revenue, operational budget of the social insurance bank, government debt, balance of payments summary, non-oil balance of payments summary, monetary survey, monetary developments, and contributions to broad money growth have also been included in the given statistical data.
International Monetary Fund
Iraq showed good progress in undertaking strong macroeconomic policies and implementing economic reforms under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Executive Directors welcomed this, and noted that low investment and stagnating output in the oil sector continue to hamper economic growth. They stressed that the new SBA should maintain macroeconomic stability, facilitate higher investment and output in the oil sector, and move forward with key reforms that were initiated under the previous arrangement. They also emphasized for reduction in inflation, increase in international reserves, and implementation of structural reforms.
Mr. Alonso A Segura Vasi, Walter Zarate, Mr. Gonzalo C Pastor Campos, and Mr. Ulrich H Klueh
This paper attempts to offer specific inputs to the debate on local content promotion in the oil industry, using the specific case of São Tomé and Príncipe as point of reference. Our approach emphasizes inter-sectoral linkages and institutional pre-conditions for local content promotion. Based on an Input-Output description of the economy, we quantify the consistency between the prospective oil sector development and the growth of other sectors of the economy. We also assess a number of sectoral policies and "niche" activities within the oil industry that would maximize the local benefits from oil exploration.
International Monetary Fund
This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Iraq’s economic growth has been slower than expected at the time of the last Article IV Consultation, mainly because the expected expansion of oil production has not materialized. Following a decline in oil production and real GDP in 2005, economic growth is estimated at 6¼ percent in 2006. Progress in implementing the structural reforms has been made. Official fuel prices have been increased to levels in other oil-exporting countries in the region, and private sector importation of fuel products has been liberalized.