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International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This technical assistance report on Chile focuses on introducing and institutionalizing spending reviews (SR). The Chilean government has announced its commitment to achieving its fiscal target and containing expenditure growth. This report proposes a SR framework with targeted reviews conducted on an annual rolling basis, combined with a periodic comprehensive review at most once every four years. Both types of reviews include targets to identify savings options. Targeted reviews focus on a limited predefined review topic or area and on value for money and efficiency. Comprehensive reviews do not have any predefined review topics; they undertake an unconstrained search for the best saving options. The report sets out a four-stage process for conducting an SR, which would start in September and have final saving decisions made in April or May of the following year. The government will need to announce the topic for the first full targeted review to Congress in September 2019. This review will be conducted in late 2019 and early 2020; the results will be ready in April 2020 in time for incorporation into the process for the 2021 budget.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
El Gobierno de Chile ha anunciado que está comprometido a alcanzar su meta fiscal y contener el crecimiento del gasto. El objetivo de la meta fiscal es reducir el déficit estructural en 0,2% del PIB en cada año del mandato presidencial (2018-2021). A fin de alcanzar esa meta, el Gobierno anunció un plan de consolidación cuatrienal para reducir gradualmente el gasto anual, en aproximadamente US$1.100 millones, para lograr un ahorro total de US$4.400 millones durante el período1. El Gobierno ha alcanzado la meta que había fijado para el balance estructural de 2018. Con el objetivo de facilitar la consecución de estas metas en los próximos años, y liberar espacio fiscal para el programa del Presidente, el Gobierno está adoptando una nueva herramienta: las revisiones del gasto (RGs).
Sangyup Choi, Davide Furceri, and Chansik Yoon
This paper sheds new light on the degree of international fiscal-financial spillovers by investigating the effect of domestic fiscal policies on cross-border bank lending. By estimating the dynamic response of U.S. cross-border bank lending towards the 45 recipient countries to exogenous domestic fiscal shocks (both measured by spending and revenue) between 1990Q1 and 2012Q4, we find that expansionary domestic fiscal shocks lead to a statistically significant increase in cross-border bank lending. The magnitude of the effect is also economically significant: the effect of 1 percent of GDP increase (decrease) in spending (revenue) is comparable to an exogenous decline in the federal funds rate. We also find that fiscal shocks tend to have larger effects during periods of recessions than expansions in the source country, and that the adverse effect of a fiscal consolidation is larger than the positive effect of the same size of a fiscal expansion. In contrast, we do not find systematic and statistically significant differences in the spillover effects across recipient countries depending on their exchange rate regime, although capital controls seem to play some moderating role. The extension of the analysis to a panel of 16 small open economies confirms the finding from the U.S. economy.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the household debt situation in Denmark and factors that have contributed to the high level of household debt in the country. Various factors seem to account for the size of household debt, including large pension assets, a highly developed mortgage market, the availability of flexible mortgage products such as deferred amortization loans, indirect subsidies through tax preferences for home ownership, and a regulated rental market that limits mobility. The paper highlights that high household debt could pose direct risks to financial stability if the number of mortgage loan defaults rises sharply in the face of adverse shocks.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The global financial crisis hit Denmark hard, and the recovery has been slow and unsteady. Denmark’s slow growth predates the recent economic crisis, and the economy has underperformed its regional peers. The current account remains in surplus, largely reflecting weak domestic demand since the crisis and strong net income. Monetary policy is based on maintaining a tight peg to the euro. Denmark’s financial system has rebuilt capital but still has substantial vulnerabilities. Potential growth is expected to recover gradually.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Denmark’s public expenditure as a share of GDP is the highest in the OECD. The main difference between Denmark and the median OECD country is the larger amount of social protection expenditure. The public health expenditure of Denmark is the second highest in the OECD. Following years of strong public capital accumulation in facilities as well as in training, education, and research, Denmark’s expenditure on public investment is now low. The composition of Denmark’s expenditures is broadly in line with the high expenditure countries.
Mr. Marc G Quintyn and Sophia Gollwitzer
This paper tests the theoretical framework developed by North, Wallis and Weingast (2009) on the transition from closed to open access societies. They posit that societies need to go through three doorsteps: (i) the establishment of rule of law among elites; (ii) the adoption of perpetually existing organizations; and (iii) the political control of the military. We identify indicators reflecting these doorsteps and graphically test the correlation between them and a set of political and economic variables. Finally, through Identification through Heteroskedasticity we test these relationships econometrically. The paper broadly confirms the logic behind the doorsteps as necessary steps in the transition to open access societies. The doorsteps influence economic and political processes, as well as each other, with varying intensity. We also identify income inequality as a potentially important force leading to social change.
Mr. Marc Robinson
Can an accrual budgeting system-a system in which budgetary spending authorizations to line ministries are formulated in accrual terms-serve the needs of good fiscal policy? If so, how must such a system be designed? What are the practical challenges which may arise in implementing sound fiscal policy under a budgeting system which is significantly more complex than traditional cash budgeting? These are the primary questions addressed in this paper. Because any budgeting system must support the control of key fiscal policy aggregates, the paper also considers the case for reformulating fiscal policy in terms of accrual rather than cash aggregates. The primary focus is on the potential fiscal policy role of net lending and net financial debt. However, the paper also considers whether net worth is an aggregate with major fiscal policy relevance.