Mr. Shekhar Aiyar, Mai Chi Dao, Mr. Andreas A. Jobst, Ms. Aiko Mineshima, Ms. Srobona Mitra, and Mahmood Pradhan
This paper evaluates the impact of the crisis on European banks’ capital under a range of macroeconomic scenarios, using granular data on the size and riskiness of sectoral exposures. The analysis incorporates the important role of pandemic-related policy support, including not only regulatory relief for banks, but also policies to support businesses and households, which act to shield the financial sector from the real economic shock.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This article is an analysis on the restructuring banking system of the European Union. The global financial crisis created the need to restructure by immensely reflecting weaknesses in the public, households, corporate, and other financial sectors. The restructuring includes the strengthening of bank resolution tools, the activation of nonperforming loans, the maintenance of macrofinancial framework, recovery of market access, and so on. The Executive Board recommends this transition of the European Union because this paves the way to financial stability globally.
Ms. Susana Garcia Cervero, J. Humberto Lopez, Mr. Enrique Alberola Ila, and Mr. Angel J. Ubide
This paper presents a methodology for calculating bilateral equilibrium exchange rates for a panel of currencies in a way that guarantees global consistency. The methodology has three parts: a theoretical model that encompasses the balance of payments and the Balassa-Samuelson approaches to real exchange rate determination; an unobserved components decomposition in a cointegration framework that identifies a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate; and an algebraic transformation that extracts bilateral equilibrium nominal rates. The results uncover that, by the start of Stage III of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the euro was significantly undervalued against the dollar and the pound, but overvalued against the yen. The paper also shows that the four major EMU currencies locked their parities with the euro at a rate close to equilibrium.