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Cover IMF Working Papers
How Have IMF Priorities Evolved? A Text Mining Approach
Gareth Anderson, Paolo Galang, Mr. Andrea Gamba, Leandro Medina, and Tianxiao Zheng
This paper assess how priorities of the IMF’s membership have evolved over the past two decades, by using text mining techniques on a unique dataset combining IMFC communiqués and constituency statements. Our results reveal significant variation in priorities across time and constituencies. Statements can be characterized by the weight which they place on three key priorities: (i) growth; (ii) debt and development; and (iii) crisis management and quota reform. Sentiment analysis techniques also show that addressing climate change is a topic which is viewed positively by an increasing number of constituencies.
Keywords:
IMFC communiqué; constituency statement; IMF priority; constituency cluster; sentiment analysis technique; Climate change; Mining sector; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Crisis management; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
China’s Capacity Reduction Reform and Its Impact on Producer Prices
Linxi Chen, Ding Ding, and Rui Mano
In late 2015, the Chinese authorities launched a policy to reduce capacity in the coal and steel industries under the wider effort of Supply-Side Structural Reforms. Around the same time, producer price inflation in China started to pick up strongly after being trapped in negative territory for more than fifty consecutive months. So what is behind this strong reflation—capacity cuts in coal and steel, or a strengthening of aggregate demand? Our empirical analyses indicate that a pickup in aggregate demand, possibly due to the government’s stimulus package in 2015-16, was the more important driver. Capacity cuts played a role in propping up coal and steel prices, explaining at most 40 percent of their price increase.
Keywords:
China; capacity reduction; supply-side structural reforms; producer price index; PPI reflation; demand factor; steel industry PPI; PPI inflation; PPI index; Non-renewable resources; Producer price indexes; Mining sector; Producer prices; Metal prices; Global