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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Article IV Consultation highlights that Uruguay has preserved macroeconomic stability in the wake of the turbulence in the region due to prudent policies and the accumulation of buffers over the years. With the worsening outlook and less friendly external environment, in the near term, policies should focus on maintaining resilience. In this context, additional efforts are needed to put debt on a firm downward trajectory and reduce inflation to within the target band. The IMF staff assesses that the external position is broadly consistent with fundamentals and desirable policy settings. The authorities and IMF staff have remained in broad agreement on the macroeconomic policy objectives, including maintaining public debt on a sustainable trajectory, keeping inflation low, and allowing exchange rate to adjust in line with fundamentals. Fiscal adjustment, however, has not proceeded as quickly as had been originally expected, and inflation has proven difficult to contain within the authorities’ target range.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The Chilean economy is recovering from a prolonged slowdown that started with the decline in copper prices in 2011 and intensified over the past two years. The new administration, which took office in March, aims at reinvigorating investment and economic growth through structural reforms, but a divided Congress may constrain the reform space.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that a mild recovery supported by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies is currently under way in Brazil. But the economy is underperforming relative to its potential, public debt is high and increasing, and, more importantly, medium-term growth prospects remain uninspiring, absent further reforms. Against the backdrop of tightening global financial conditions, placing Brazil on a path of strong, balanced and durable growth requires a committed pursuit of fiscal consolidation, ambitious structural reforms, and a strengthening of the financial sector architecture. Following the severe recession in 2015-16, real GDP grew by 1 percent in 2017. Growth is projected to be 1.8 and 2.5 percent in 2018 and 2019, respectively, driven by a recovery in domestic consumption and investment.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Brazil’s deep recession appears close to an end. The recession, triggered by large macroeconomic imbalances and a loss of confidence, was exacerbated by declining terms of trade, tight financing conditions, and a political crisis. Growth is projected to be 0.3 percent in 2017 and 1.3 percent in 2018, moving toward 2 percent in the medium term. Inflation is projected to undershoot its central target of 4.5 percent in 2017 and 2018. The forecast assumes that a sufficiently strong set of measures are put in place to ensure fiscal sustainability. Political instability and spillovers from the corruption investigation are major sources of risk that could threaten the reform agenda and the recovery.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The economy is still in its deepest recession in decades, partly the result of the failure of past policies. The recession has been aggravated by a political crisis, which had, until recently, paralyzed policymaking and further damaged confidence. President Rousseff was impeached for responsibility crimes related to fiscal practices on August 31, and the government that took office in May will remain in charge until January 1st, 2019. Markets have responded positively to the new government’s reform agenda, bolstering asset prices and confidence and helping the country ride a positive wave of sentiment toward emerging economies. However, while some high-frequency indicators suggest the recession may be nearing its end, the implementation of much-needed reforms to durably restore policy credibility is subject to risks.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses key issues related to the Colombian economy. Despite adverse global circumstances, Colombia’s successful policies and inclusive growth agenda continued in 2015. Colombia’s strong policy framework helped ensure an orderly adjustment to the deteriorated external conditions. Although the medium-term outlook is favorable, it is surrounded by downside risks. The main near-term risks stem from Colombia’s still significant near-term external financing needs and potential capital inflow reversals, the result of volatile global financial conditions. On the upside, bringing the peace process to fruition could further improve business confidence and capital inflows, reinforcing the recovery that will follow the necessary adjustment process.