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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions with Pakistan. Pakistan’s near-term outlook for economic growth is broadly favorable. Real GDP is expected to grow by 5.6 percent in FY2017/18, supported by improved power supply, investment related to the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, strong consumption growth, and ongoing recovery in agriculture. Inflation has remained contained. However, continued erosion of macroeconomic resilience could put this outlook at risk. The FY2017/18 current account deficit could reach 4.8 percent of GDP, with gross international reserves further declining in a context of limited exchange rate flexibility.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Pakistan’s outlook for economic growth is favorable. Real GDP is estimated at 5.3 percent in FY2016/17 and strengthening to 6 percent over the medium term on the back of stepped-up China Pakistan Economic Corridor investments, improved availability of energy, and growth-supporting structural reforms. Inflation has been gradually increasing but remains contained, and the financial sector has remained sound. Key external risks include lower trading partner growth, tighter international financial conditions, a faster rise in international oil prices, and over the medium term, failure to generate sufficient exports to meet rising external obligations from large-scale foreign-financed investments.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the surprising strength of remittances in Bangladesh and other countries in South Asia and the Philippines in 2009. The empirical analysis suggests that the continued strong growth of remittances in these countries is related to the resilience of non-oil GDP growth in the GCC countries and the surge in the GCC countries’ hiring of migrant workers from South Asia during 2006–08. The remittances-to-GDP ratio in South Asia and the Philippines are likely to remain robust in the near term.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Pakistan. Program implementation has been uneven but key reforms are moving forward. All end-September 2009 quantitative performance criteria were met, with the exception of the ceiling on the overall budget deficit. The tax revenue foregone in September was largely recovered in October, and the wage bill overrun was self-correcting. On these grounds, the authorities request a waiver of nonobservance for the related end-September 2009 performance criterion. IMF staff recommends the completion of the program review.
Lone Engbo Christiansen, Mr. Alessandro Prati, Mr. Luca A Ricci, and Mr. Thierry Tressel
This paper offers a coherent empirical analysis of the determinants of the real exchange rate, the current account, and the net foreign assets position in low income countries. The paper focuses on indicators specific to low income countries, such as the quality of policies and institutions, the special access to official external financing, and the role of shocks. In addition to more standard factors, we find that domestic financial liberalization is associated with higher current account balances and net foreign asset positions, while capital account liberalization is associated with lower current account balances and net foreign asset positions and with more appreciated real exchange rates. Negative exogenous shocks tend to raise (reduce) the current account in countries with closed (opened) capital accounts. Finally, foreign aid is progressively absorbed over time through net imports, and is associated with a more depreciated real exchange rate in the long-run.
International Monetary Fund
Pakistan’s authorities have requested a 23-month Stand-By Arrangement for SDR 5.169 billion in support of their macroeconomic stabilization program. The authorities’ program envisages a tightening of fiscal and monetary policies to bring down inflation and reduce the external current account deficit to more sustainable levels. The pace of adjustment seeks to balance the need to address the current macroeconomic imbalances with protecting social stability. The program envisages important reforms in tax policy and administration and public financial management.
Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, Mr. Carlo Cottarelli, Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, and Mr. Atish R. Ghosh


Exchange rate analysis lies at the center of the IMF's surveillance mandate and policy advice, as well as in the design of IMF-supported programs, and IMF staff are called upon to analyze a wide variety of exchange rate issues in various member countries, both small and large, from the least economically developed to the most advanced, and from those whose currencies circulate only locally to those whose currencies are of global importance. Each year, IMF staff produce dozens of studies on exchange rate issues, some published by the IMF, others in various professional journals or books. This book aims to give a flavor of the topics the IMF staff typically examine under the broad rubric of exchange rate analysis, encompassing several topics: determination and impact of the real exchange rate, assessing competitiveness and the equilibrium real exchange rate in specific countries or country groups, and considerations in the choice of exchange rate regime.