The Financial Action Task Force’s gray list publicly identiﬁes countries with strategic deﬁciencies in their AML/CFT regimes (i.e., in their policies to prevent money laundering and the ﬁnancing of terrorism). How much gray-listing aﬀects a country’s capital ﬂows is of interest to policy makers, investors, and the Fund. This paper estimates the magnitude of the eﬀect using an inferential machine learning technique. It ﬁnds that gray-listing results in a large and statistically signiﬁcant reduction in capital inﬂows.
Jannick Damgaard, Thomas Elkjaer, and Niels Johannesen
Macro statistics on foreign direct investment (FDI) are blurred by offshore centers with
enormous inward and outward investment positions. This paper uses several new data
sources, both macro and micro, to estimate the global FDI network while disentangling real
investment and phantom investment and allocating real investment to ultimate investor
economies. We find that phantom investment into corporate shells with no substance and no
real links to the local economy may account for almost 40 percent of global FDI. Ignoring
phantom investment and allocating real investment to ultimate investors increases the
explanatory power of standard gravity variables by around 25 percent.
Ms. Yevgeniya Korniyenko, Manasa Patnam, Rita Maria del Rio-Chanon, and Mason A. Porter
This paper studies the interconnectedness of the global financial system and its susceptibility
to shocks. A novel multilayer network framework is applied to link debt and equity
exposures across countries. Use of this approach—that examines simultaneously multiple
channels of transmission and their important higher order effects—shows that ignoring the
heterogeneity of financial exposures, and simply aggregating all claims, as often done in
other studies, can underestimate the extent and effects of financial contagion.The structure of
the global financial network has changed since the global financial crisis, impacted by
European bank’s deleveraging and higher corporate debt issuance. Still, we find that the
structure of the system and contagion remain similar in that network is highly susceptible to
shocks from central countries and those with large financial systems (e.g., the USA and the
UK). While, individual European countries (excluding the UK) have relatively low impact on
shock propagation, the network is highly susceptible to the shocks from the entire euro area.
Another important development is the rising role of the Asian countries and the noticeable
increase in network susceptibility to shocks from China and Hong Kong SAR economies.
The production of the Handbook on Securities Statistics (the Handbook) is a joint undertaking by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). They have specific interests and expertise in the area of securities statistics and are the core members of the Working Group on Securities Databases (WGSD). In 2007, the WGSD—originally established by the IMF in 1999—was reconvened in response to various international initiatives and recommendations to improve information on securities markets. The WGSD is chaired by the ECB and includes the BIS, the IMF and the World Bank. Selected experts from national central banks, who participated actively in the various international groups that identified the need to improve data on securities markets, were also invited to contribute to some of the WGSD’s deliberations. In mid-2008, the WGSD agreed to sponsor the development of a handbook on securities statistics. In November 2009, the report entitled “The Financial Crisis and Information Gaps”, which was prepared by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) Secretariat and IMF staff at the request of the Group of Twenty (G-20) finance ministers and central bank governors, endorsed the development of the Handbook, as well as the gradual implementation of improved statistics on issuance and holdings of securities at the national and international level. The BIS’s compilation of data on debt securities plays an important role in this respect. The Handbook sponsors responded to the demand from various international groups for the development of methodological standards for securities statistics and released the Handbook in three parts. Part 1 on debt securities issues was published in May 2009, and Part 2 on debt securities holdings in September 2010. Part 3 of the Handbook on equity securities statistics was published in November 2012. The methodology described in all three parts was based on the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA) and the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). The three parts also went slightly beyond the confines of these standards by providing guidance and additional information on, for example, the main features of securities, special and borderline cases, and breakdowns of issues and holdings of securities by counterparty. Special attention was also paid to specific operations such as mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, privatization and nationalization, and transactions between general government and public corporations. From the beginning, the intention was to combine the three parts into one volume, thereby eliminating any overlap and repetitions between the parts. The Handbook’s conceptual framework is complemented by a set of tables for presenting securities data both at an aggregated level and broken down by various features. This should allow sufficient flexibility in the presentation of data on issuance and holdings of securities, in line with developments in securities markets and financing. The Handbook is the first publication of its kind to focus exclusively on securities statistics. Recent turmoil in global financial markets has confirmed the importance of timely, relevant, coherent, and internationally comparable data on securities, from the perspective of monetary policy, fiscal policy, and financial stability analysis. This Handbook provides a conceptual framework for the compilation and presentation of statistics on different types.
This note documents and assesses the role of small financial centers in the international financial system using a newly-assembled dataset. It presents estimates of the foreign asset and liability positions for a number of the most important small financial centers, and places these into context by calculating the importance of these locations in the global aggregate of cross-border investment positions. It also reports some information on bilateral cross-border investment patterns, highlighting which countries engage in financial trade with small financial centers.
This paper proposes a new definition of Offshore Financial Centers (OFCs) and develops a statistical method to differentiate between OFCs and non-OFCs using data from the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS), the International Investment Position (IIP), and the balance of payments. The suggested methodology identifies more than 80 percent of the OFCs in the study sample that also appear in the a priori list used by the IMF to conduct its OFC assessment program. The methodology distinguishes OFCs based strictly on their macroeconomic features and avoids subjective presumptions on their activities or regulatory frameworks. The study also identifies three new countries meeting OFC criteria.
The Background Papers gathers together a number of studies that were prepared as research to the final report. Although not a part of the report itself, these papers provide detail on a number of issues grouped together here by general topic; data sources and methodology, direct investment, portfolio investment, international banking statistics, and other capital flows.
The Report evaluates statistical practices relating to the measurement of international capital flows. In particular, the principal sources of statistical descrepancies in the component categories of the capital account in the global balance of payments are addressed.
Mr. Maxwell Watson, Mr. Peter M Keller, and Mr. Donald J Mathieson
This paper provides a description and analysis of recent developments in international capital markets and an assessment of the prospects for private financing flows, in particular to the developing countries.