International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Hong Kong SAR has, over the recent years, become an equity trading hub catering to domestic and foreign investors, including increasingly to investors from Mainland China. Most trading is conducted on markets operated by recognized exchange companies, with limited domestic trading happening via automated trading services (ATS) providers in the form of alternative liquidity pools. The introduction of Stock Connect in 2014 enabled investors from Hong Kong (including domestic and foreign) to directly invest in the Shanghai and later Shenzhen markets and investors from the Mainland to directly access the Hong Kong market. Trading via Stock Connect has seen a steady rise over the last few years, increasing the linkages between Hong Kong SAR and the Mainland. Mainland companies currently account for over 60 per cent of market capitalization of the equities traded on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK).
The case studies document the regulatory and supervisory dimension of episodes during the recent crisis involving capital flows that generated systemic stress. Source country regulation and supervision is the main focus, although recipient country policies also were important in some cases and are thus covered as well.
Three of the case studies are motivated by systemic stress that arose from flows between advanced economies. Strong demand by foreign investors for U.S. financial products helped drive gross flows between the United States and other countries, especially Europe, and induced the U.S. financial sector to develop products that transformed their risky assets into highly-rated securities. In turn, large European banks came to depend on short-term liquidity provided from the U.S. These two-way capital flows created a complex web among markets and institutions, some regulated and some not. Against this background, case studies were prepared for European banks and U.S. money market mutual funds (MMMFs) and for German banks and U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBSs). Another important case is that of the near failure of the American International Group (AIG), which turned out to have complex and systemically cross-border linkages with other global institutions and markets.
The paper investigates whether the market size of a regional trade agreement (RTA) is a determinant of foreign direct investment (FDI) received by countries participating in the RTA. This hypothesis is tested on a sample of 71 developing countries during the period 1980-99. Evidence is found that the RTA market size had a positive impact on the FDI received by member countries, even more so in the 1990s when such agreements were revived and became more widespread. The size of domestic population also seemed to matter, possibly because of its effect on the availability of the labor supply. It appears, however, that not all countries in the RTA benefited to the same extent from the RTA: countries with a relatively more educated labor force and/or a relatively more stable financial situation tended to attract a larger share of FDI at the expense of their RTA partners. This evidence suggests it is essential for all RTA countries to improve their business environment to the best available in the region. Finally, a partial negative correlation between the FDI received by RTA countries and that received by non-RTA countries possibly reflects a diversion of FDI from non-RTA to RTA countries. As an illustration, FDI benefits are simulated from the creation of a regional trade agreement between Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia.
This study provides information on official financing and the debt situation of developing countries. It discusses issues related to trade finance in financial crises, and the challenge of maintaining external debt sustainability in debtor countries. It updates the 2001 edition of Official Financing for Developing Countries.
We investigate the relative importance of country and industry effects in international stock returns, with the innovation that we decompose country effects into region and within-region country effects. We divide the global stock market into the Americas, Asia, and Europe and find that most of the variation explained by country effects is actually due to region effects. Over time, these region effects have fallen. Within regions, however, only in Europe has segmentation declined, while it has increased elsewhere. Europe is also the only region where industry effects are now robustly more important than country effects.
Large stocks of U.S. dollars and other hard currencies circulate in the transition economies, in Latin America, and in other countries that have experienced macroeconomic mismanagement. Using a monetary model that combines the legal restrictions and crime-theoretic traditions, this paper demonstrates how leaky exchange controls lead to currency substitution and progressive dollarization. The paper also analyzes the impact of dollarization on the ability of governments to earn seigniorage, the dynamics of dollarization in a growing economy, and the central role of expectations—specifically, confidence in the domestic currency—in determining the extent of dollarization and, potentially, in reversing it.
Keller (1998) reexamines Coe and Helpman’s (1995) analysis of international R&D spillovers focusing on the weights used to define the foreign R&D capital stock. Keller creates “random” weights and shows that they give rise to positive estimates of international R&D spillovers, casting doubts on the robustness of Coe and Helpman’s findings. We show that Keller’s “random” weights are essentially simple averages with a random error. We derive alternative random weights and present regressions showing that when they are used to define the foreign R&D capital stock, the estimated international R&D spillover estimates are nonexistent, as would be expected.
This study provides information on official financing for developing countries with the focus on low and lower-middle-income countries. It updates the 1995 edition and reviews developments in direct financing by offical and multilateral sources. Topics of interest include external debt sustainability for heavily indebted poor countries; new official financing flows to developing countries; developments in export credits;financing from multilateral institutions; debt restructuring by official bilateral creditors; plus, numerous appendices.
Automated trade execution systems are examined with respect to the degree to which they automate the price discovery process. Seven levels of automation of price discovery are identified, and 47 systems are classified according to these criteria. Systems operating at various levels of automation are compared with respect to age, geographical location, and type of securities traded. Information provided to market participants, and asymmetries of information between traders with direct access to the automated market and outside investors also are examined. It is found, for example, that the degree of asymmetric information increases with the level of automation of price discovery. The potential for trading abuses related to prearranged trading, noncompetitive execution, and trading ahead of customers is analyzed for each level of automation. Certain levels of automation widen the opportunities for trading abuses in some respects, but may narrow them in others.
A taxonomy of existing and planned automated trade execution systems in financial markets is provided. Over 50 automated market structures in 16 countries are analyzed. The classification scheme is organized around the principle that such markets consist of an algorithm that performs a trade matching function, together with information display and transmission mechanisms. Automated market structures are classified by ordered sets of trade execution priority rules, trade matching protocols and associated degree of automation of price discovery, and transparency, to include informational asymmetries between classes of market participants. Systematic differences in systems across types of financial instruments, geographical market centers, and over time are analyzed.