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You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics x
  • Financial crises x
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Cover The ASEAN Way
The ASEAN Way
Sustaining Growth and Stability
Ms. Ana Corbacho and Mr. Shanaka J Peiris

Abstract

The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN­5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.

Keywords:
BOOK; monetary policy; exchange rate; economy; inflation expectation; transmission mechanism; monetary policy framework; ASEAN economy; Association of Southeast Asian Nations-5; inflation-targeting regime; Macroprudential policy; Financial sector stability; Inflation; Foreign exchange intervention; Global; Asia and Pacific; North America; Southeast Asia; Europe; countercyclical monetary policy; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Caribbean
Cover Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential
Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential
Mr. Luis E Breuer, Mr. Jaime Guajardo, and Mr. Tidiane Kinda

Abstract

Analytical work on Indonesian macroeconomic and financial issues, with an overarching theme on building institutions and policies for prosperity and inclusive growth. The book begins with a 20-year economic overview by former Finance Minister Chatib Basri, with subsequent chapters covering diverse sectors of the economy as well as Indonesia’s place in the global economy.

Keywords:
BOOK; Indonesia; government; economy; commodity; value-added tax; trade exposure; streamlining product market; commodity exporter; foreign currency; Exports; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Infrastructure; Global; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific; East Asia; Africa; output dynamics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Globalization and the New Normal
Ms. Alina Carare, Bertrand Candelon, Jean-Baptiste Hasse, and Jing Lu
This study expands the empirical specification of Cerra and Saxena (2008), and allows short-term output growth regimes to be determined by globalization. Relying on a non-linear dynamic panel representation, it reconciles the earlier results in the literature regarding the two opposite narratives of the effects of globalization on output growth. Countries experience higher growth, on average, the more open and integrated they are into the world. However, once they reach a certain globalization threshold (endogenously estimated), countries may also experience a new normal, persistently lower short-term output growth following a financial crisis. The benefits, as well as vulnerabilities, accrue earlier in the globalization process for low- and middle-income countries. To solely reap the globalization benefits on growth, sound policies should be in place to mitigate the negative effects stemming from increased vulnerabilities brought by globalization.
Keywords:
WP; KOF globalization Index; high-globalization regime; banking crisis; trade globalization; New Normal; Globalization; Financial crises; Banking crises; Output growth; globalization threshold; Index value; Production growth; Stock markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sudden Stops, Output Drops, and Credit Collapses
Jihad Dagher
This paper proposes a tractable Sudden Stop model to explain the main patterns in firm level data in a sample of Southeast Asian firms during the Asian crisis. The model, which features trend shocks and financial frictions, is able to generate the main patterns observed in the sample during and following the Asian crisis, including the ensuing credit-less recovery, which are also patterns broadly shared by most Sudden Stop episodes as documented in Calvo et al. (2006). The model also proposes a novel explanation as to why small firms experience steeper declines than their larger peers as documented in this paper. This size effect is generated under the assumption that small firms are growth firms, to which there is support in the data. Trend shocks when combined with financial frictions in this model also generate strong leverage effects in line with what is observed in the sample, and with other observations from the literature.
Keywords:
WP; mover accent; market value; business cycle; interest rate; transition probability; Financial liberalization; welfare gain; financial deepening; economic growth; small firm; maximization problem; productivity parameter; firm decrease; growth firm; leverage firm; Sudden stops; Financial frictions; Stocks; Business cycles; Southeast Asia
Cover Korean Crisis and Recovery
Korean Crisis and Recovery
Mr. David T. Coe and Mr. Se-Jik Kim

Abstract

Edited by David T. Coe and Se-Jik Kim, this volume contains papers presented at a May 2001 conference in Seoul sponsored by the IMF and the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy on the Korean Crisis and Recovery. The papers examine the response to the 1997 crisis, its long-term impact on growth, and the state of financial and corporate sector reforms. Authors include academics, Korean policymakers, and IMF and World Bank staff involved in the Korean program.

Keywords:
SEM; economy; financial crisis; crisis; opening remark; creditor bank; investment ratio; restructuring process; lessons from Korea; Exchange rates; Corporate bonds; Currency crises; Corporate sector; East Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Price Volatility and Financial Instability
Mr. Gene L. Leon and Mr. Rupert D Worrell
Statistical measures of the volatility of exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices are estimated for a number of countries. Periods of high volatility are identified and compared with periods of financial difficulty. The results indicate that GARCH models of volatility could be potentially useful in assessing financial soundness. Daily data are more revealing, but monthly series allow comparisons among many countries. Country specific models may be needed for more reliable inference.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; interest rate; volatility; financial instability; GARCH models; interest rate volatility; price instability; interest rate estimate; exchange rate volatility; behavior exchange rates; volatility overlap; Exchange rates; Asset prices; Stock markets; Capital markets; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Currency and Banking Crises: The Early Warnings of Distress
Graciela Laura Kaminsky
The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.
Keywords:
WP; banking crisis; currency crisis; foreign exchange; Early Warnings; Currency Crises; Banking Crises; forecasting currency; crisis time; banking fragility; currency-crisis months; currency crash; Real exchange rates; Cyclical indicators; Asia and Pacific; Global