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Cover IMF Working Papers
Lost in Transmission? The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the GCC Countries
Mr. Serhan Cevik and Ms. Katerina Teksoz
This paper empirically investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a structural vector autoregressive model. The results indicate that the interest rate and bank lending channels are relatively effective in influencing non-hydrocarbon output and consumer prices, while the exchange rate channel does not appear to play an important role as a monetary transmission mechanism because of the pegged exchange rate regimes. The empirical analysis suggests that policy measures and structural reforms - strengthening financial intermediation and facilitating the development of liquid domestic capital markets - would advance the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanisms in the GCC countries.
Keywords:
WP; GCC country; interest rate; contractionary monetary policy; Monetary policy transmission; inflation; credit channel; structural VAR; monetary policy shock; exchange rate regime; GCC aggregate; GCC economy; Exchange rates; Exchange rate arrangements; Bank credit; Structural vector autoregression; Monetary transmission mechanism; Global