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Harri Kemp, Mr. Rafael A Portillo, and Marika Santoro
We estimate the role of (pre-Ukraine war) supply disruptions in constraining the Covid-19 pandemic recovery, for several advanced economies and emerging markets, and globally. We rely on two approaches. In the first approach, we use sign-restricted Vector Auto Regressions (SVAR) to identify supply and demand shocks in manufacturing, based on the co-movement of surveys on new orders and suppliers’ delivery times. The effects of these shocks on industrial production and GDP are recovered through a combination of local projection methods and the input-output framework in Acemoglu et al. (2016). In the second approach, we use the IMF’s G20 model to gauge the importance of supply shocks in jointly driving activity and inflation surprises. We find that supply disruptions subtracted between 0.5 and 1.2 percent from global value added during the global recovery in 2021, while also adding about 1 percent to global core inflation that same year.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The IMF conducted a remote technical assistance (TA) mission from March 1 to 12, 2021, to help the National Statistics Office of Mongolia (NSOM) compile a monthly indicator of economic activity (MIEA). Experimental results describe monthly economic activity from January 2010 to January 2021 as well as the impact of the COVID-19. This second mission for developing the MIEA was funded by the IMF's Data for Decisions trust fund1 (D4D).