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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Waivers of Applicability and Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review—Supplementary Information
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

ARGENTINA

Keywords:
payments arrears; met end-September; update of program performance; central bank stock; National AML; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Stocks; Futures; International reserves; Social assistance spending
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Implement Strategic Foresight (and Why)
Mr. Alberto Behar and Sandile Hlatshwayo

This note explains the value of strategic foresight and provides implementation advice based on the IMF’s experience with scenario planning and policy gaming. Section II provides an overview of strategic foresight and some of its tools. Scenario planning and policy gaming have been the Fund’s main foresight techniques so far, though other tools have been complementary. Accordingly, section III focuses on the scenario planning by illustrating applications before detailing the methods we have been using, while section IV describes policy gaming including the matrix policy gaming approach with which we have experimented so far. Section V summarizes the key points. In so doing, the note extends an invitation to those in the economics and finance fields (e.g., researchers, policymakers) to incorporate strategic foresight in their analysis and decision making.

Keywords:
IMF country team; IMF risk preparedness framework; IMF team; foresight work; IMF economist; Futures
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Implement Strategic Foresight (and Why)
Mr. Alberto Behar and Sandile Hlatshwayo
This note explains the value of strategic foresight and provides implementation advice based on the IMF’s experience with scenario planning and policy gaming. Section II provides an overview of strategic foresight and some of its tools. Scenario planning and policy gaming have been the Fund’s main foresight techniques so far, though other tools have been complementary. Accordingly, section III focuses on the scenario planning by illustrating applications before detailing the methods we have been using, while section IV describes policy gaming including the matrix policy gaming approach with which we have experimented so far. Section V summarizes the key points. In so doing, the note extends an invitation to those in the economics and finance fields (e.g., researchers, policymakers) to incorporate strategic foresight in their analysis and decision making.
Keywords:
risk-preparedness framework; Policy game; data IMF Library; guidance note; scenario planning; Futures; Stress testing; Emerging and frontier financial markets; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Surprises and Inflation Expectation Dispersion
Bertrand Gruss, Mrs. Sandra V Lizarazo Ruiz, and Mr. Francesco Grigoli
Anchoring of inflation expectations is of paramount importance for central banks’ ability to deliver stable inflation and minimize price dispersion. Relying on daily interest rates and inflation forecasts from major financial institutions in the United States, we calculate monetary policy surprises of individual analysts as the unexpected changes in the federal funds rate before the meetings of the Federal Reserve Board. We then assess the effect of monetary policy surprises on the dispersion of inflation expectations, a proxy for the extent of anchoring, which is based on the same analysts’ inflation projections submit-ted after the Fed meetings. With an identification strategy that hinges on a tight window around the Fed meetings, we find that monetary policy surprises lead to an increase in the dispersion of inflation expectations up to nine months after the policy meeting. We rationalize these results with a partial equilibrium model that features rational expectations and sticky information. When we allow the degree of information rigidity to depend on the realization of firm-specific shocks, the theoretical results are qualitatively consistent and quantitatively close to the empirical evidence.
Keywords:
Anchoring; disagreement; dispersion; information rigidity; in?ation expectations; sticky information.; WP; inflation expectation; expectation dispersion; monetary policy surprise; price level; inflation dispersion; inflation expectation formation mechanism; inflation expectations; sticky information; expectation decrease; expectation disagreement; inflation release; standard deviation; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Central bank policy rate; Futures; Global
Cover Finance & Development
The Greatest Balancing Act: Nature and the Global Economy
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department

PHOTOS: RICHARD BARRETT/WWF-UK; ISTOCK/SBAYRAM

Keywords:
FD; F&D; optimization problem; cost; industrialized warfare; United Nations sustainable development goal; natural world; healthy economy; price of fossil fuel energy; Non-renewable resources; Futures; Global