Profit shifting remains a key concern in international tax system debate, but discussions are largely based on aggregate estimates, with less attention paid to individual sectors. Drawing on a novel dataset, we quantify tax avoidance risks in the extractive industries, a sector which is revenue critical for many developing economies. We find that a one percentage point increase in the domestic corporate tax rate has historically reduced sectoral profits by slightly over 3 percent; and the response tends to be more pronounced among mining than among hydrocarbon firms. There is only weak evidence transfer pricing rules contain tax minimization efforts of MNEs in our sample, but interest limitation rules (e.g., thin capitalization or earnings based rules) do reduce the observable extent of profit shifting. Our findings highlight the challenge of taxing income in the natural resource sector and suggest how fiscal regime design might be strengthened.
This paper discusses Malian mining taxation. Mali’s industrial mining sector is predominantly gold mining, with six industrial mines currently active. Most of the mines are old, but some have substantial reserves; extensions are planned for the Syama, Morila, Kalama, Tabakoto-Segela, and Loulo-Gounkoto mines. The Fiscal Analysis for Resource Industries model was completed for five new projects with recent feasibility studies. The government revenue contributed by the five new projects is on the order of US$1.7 billion (constant dollars) over the next 10 years. The application of the 1999 or 2012 Mining Code increases the government’s share of income in comparison with the 1991 code.