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Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring/Summer 2018
IMF Research Perspective (formerly published as IMF Research Bulletin) is a new, redesigned online newsletter covering updates on IMF research. In the inaugural issue of the newsletter, Hites Ahir interviews Valeria Cerra; and they discuss the economic environment 10 years after the global financial crisis. Research Summaries cover the rise of populism; economic reform; labor and technology; big data; and the relationship between happiness and productivity. Sweta C. Saxena was the guest editor for this inaugural issue.
Keywords:
IRB; big data wave; populism; product market reform; reform agenda; rise of populism; big data innovation; Big data; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Personal income; Output gap; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic
Mr. Christian A Johnson
Potential Output is a key factor for debt sustaintability analysis and for developing strategies for growth, but unfortunately it is an unobservable variable. Using three methodologies (production function, switching, and state-space), this paper computes potential output for CAPDR countries using annual data. Main findings are: i) CAPDR potential growth is about 4.4 percent while output gap volatility is about 1.9 percent; ii) The highest-potential growth country is Panama (6.5 percent) while the lowest-growth country is El Salvador (2.6 percent); iii) CAPDR business cycle is about eigth years.
Keywords:
WP; Potential growth; output gap; growth decomposition; switching; state-space model; output gap volatility; output gap-production function approach; output gap variability; standard deviation; CAPDR country; potential output gap; Potential output; Production growth; Sustainable growth; Total factor productivity; Central America