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  • Bahamas, The x
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Mr. John Kiff, Jihad Alwazir, Sonja Davidovic, Aquiles Farias, Mr. Ashraf Khan, Mr. Tanai Khiaonarong, Majid Malaika, Mr. Hunter K Monroe, Nobu Sugimoto, Hervé Tourpe, and Peter Zhou
This paper examines key considerations around central bank digital currency (CBDC) for use by the general public, based on a comprehensive review of recent research, central bank experiments, and ongoing discussions among stakeholders. It looks at the reasons why central banks are exploring retail CBDC issuance, policy and design considerations; legal, governance and regulatory perspectives; plus cybersecurity and other risk considerations. This paper makes a contribution to the CBDC literature by suggesting a structured framework to organize discussions on whether or not to issue CBDC, with an operational focus and a project management perspective.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper highlights The Bahamas’ Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic comes on the heels of the widespread destruction caused by Hurricane Dorian in September 2019. Coupled with domestic containment measures, the collapse in tourism will cause a deep recession. The Bahamian authorities have taken timely and targeted measures to boost health spending and mitigate the socioeconomic impact of the pandemic, supporting jobs and vulnerable segments of the population. The disbursement under the RFI will help boost resources for essential COVID-19-related outlays, strengthen reserves, and catalyze additional support from other international financial institutions, development partners, and the private sector. In order to address the urgent fiscal needs, the central bank will on-lend the disbursement to the Ministry of Finance. The IMF staff is confident that the authorities will pursue appropriate policies for alleviating the impact of the pandemic, based on the country’s strong track record. The Bahamas is assessed to have sustainable debt and adequate capacity to repay the IMF.
Mr. Serhan Cevik
The widespread availability of internet search data is a new source of high-frequency information that can potentially improve the precision of macroeconomic forecasting, especially in areas with data constraints. This paper investigates whether travel-related online search queries enhance accuracy in the forecasting of tourist arrivals to The Bahamas from the U.S. The results indicate that the forecast model incorporating internet search data provides additional information about tourist flows over a univariate approach using the traditional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and multivariate models with macroeconomic indicators. The Google Trends-augmented model improves predictability of tourist arrivals by about 30 percent compared to the benchmark ARIMA model and more than 20 percent compared to the model extended only with income and relative prices.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Growth has returned after years of stagnation. The reform-oriented government is tackling structural issues, with notable achievements in the fiscal area. The financial sector is sound and resilient to current stability threats, but credit remains scarce. The offshore sector faces heightened international scrutiny and the government is taking steps to strengthen compliance with AML/CFT and tax transparency standards. Tourism and related foreign investments will support growth in the near-term, while low competitiveness and diversification dampen medium-term prospects. Growth would suffer from a slowdown in the U.S. or higher oil prices, and hurricane vulnerability persists. Reform momentum could stall, undermining fiscal consolidation efforts.