Manoj Atolia, Mr. Prakash Loungani, Milton Marquis, and Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
This paper takes a fresh look at the current theories of structural transformation and the role of
private and public fundamentals in the process. It summarizes some representative past and
current experiences of various countries vis-a-vis structural transformation with a focus on the
roles of manufacturing, policy, and the international environment in shaping the trajectory of
structural transformation. The salient aspects of the current debate on premature
deindustrialization and its relation to a middle-income trap are described as they relate to the
path of structural transformation. Conclusions are drawn regarding prospective future paths for
structural transformation and development policies.
In May 2007, the IMF and World Bank Boards discussed the paper "Strengthening Debt Management Practices: Lessons from Country Experiences and Issues Going Forward". In those discussions, the Boards of both institutions endorsed a public debt management (PDM) work program that was particularly focused on strengthening frameworks and capacity in low-income countries (LICs). This comprised three main elements: (i) develop a toolkit to help LICs formulate an effective Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) and apply it in 4–6 countries a year; (ii) undertake debt management performance assessments; and (iii) continue the provision of debt management and domestic market development technical assistance (TA) and advisory services to middle-income countries (MICs). This paper is a response to the Boards' request for an update on the development and implementation of that work program.
Developing a Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS)— Guidance Note for Country Authorities
Debt Management Performance Assessment Tool (DEMPA)
Developing a Medium Term Debt Management Strategy: User Guide and Analytical Tool — In March 2009, the Executive Boards of the World Bank and the IMF endorsed the Medium Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) Framework developed by IMF and World Bank staff to help countries elaborate effective debt management strategies. The MTDS framework and toolkit comprises two elements: An operational guidance note (GN) and a spreadsheet-based analytical tool (AT). The GN provides practical guidance on the process of developing an effective MTDS, describing each step involved, while the AT provides quantitative analysis to guide the MTDS decision-making process.
Research summaries on (1) public investment, and (2) bank transaction taxes; announcement of forthcoming (November 2006) Jacques Polak Seventh Annual Research Conference; country study on Italy; listing of contents of Vol. 53, No. 2 of IMF Staff Papers, summary of recently published book entitled "Divergent Paths in Post-Communist Transformation: Capitalism for All or Capitalism for the Few?"; summary of (January 2006) Warsaw Conference on European Union (EU) enlargement and related flows of labor and capital; listing of recent IMF Working Papers; and listing of visiting scholars at IMF, January-April 2006.
We examine the deep determinants of long-run macroeconomic stability in a cross-country framework. We find that conflict, openness, and democratic political institutions have a strong and statistically significant causal impact on macroeconomic stability. Surprisingly the most robust relationship of the three is for democratic institutions. A one standard deviation increase in democracy can reduce nominal instability nearly fourfold. This impact is robust to alternative measures of democracy, samples, covariates, and definitions of conflict. It is particularly noteworthy that a variety of nominal pathologies discussed in the recent macroeconomic literature, such as procyclical policy, original sin, and debt intolerance, have common origins in weak democratic institutions. We also find evidence that democratic institutions both strongly influence monetary policy and have a strong, independent positive effect on stability after controlling for various policy variables.
This study provides information on official financing and the debt situation of developing countries. It discusses issues related to trade finance in financial crises, and the challenge of maintaining external debt sustainability in debtor countries. It updates the 2001 edition of Official Financing for Developing Countries.
The paper first discusses price trends and the relationship between money growth and inflation. Second, it focuses on the central challenge of improving competitiveness and promoting exports to enhance growth in the economy. Finally, it reviews the microfinance sector. The study also includes the following statistical data: economic and financial indicators, consumer price index, central government revenue and expenditure, monetary survey, structure of interest rates, balance of payments, composition of imports and merchandise exports, nominal and effective exchange rates, and external public debt.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Speaking at the Thirty-Third Washington Conference of the Council of the Americas on April 29, IMF Managing Director Horst Köhler expressed optimism about Latin America’s growth prospects. Despite difficult economic times, he said, the people have indicated no desire to return to past authoritarian regimes, and several countries have recently reaffirmed their commitment to a market-based system. A summary of Köhle’s address, delivered at the U.S. Department of State, follows.