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Mr. Amine Mati, Ms. Monique Newiak, and James Wilson
This paper focuses on identifying potential asymmetric responses of non-commodity output growth in times of positive and negative commodity terms-of-trade shocks. Using a sample of 27 oil-exporting countries and a panel VAR method, the study finds: 1) the short-and medium-run response of real non-commodity GDP growth is larger for negative shocks than positive shocks; 2) this asymmetry is more pronounced in countries with weak pre-existing fundamentals–high levels of public debt and low levels of international reserves–which also serve to amplify the volatility of the response; 3) the output response to positive shocks is stronger following a sustained period of CTOT increases, while the impact of negative shocks on output are more damaging when they occur after a period of CTOT decline.
Mr. Mario de Zamaroczy, Mr. Vincent Fleuriet, and Mr. Jose G Gijon
This paper discusses possible reserve management approaches in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). The paper looks beyond the region’s current oil crisis and proposes a new approach to international reserve management in the medium term.
Mr. Mario de Zamaroczy, Mr. Vincent Fleuriet, and Mr. Jose G Gijon
This paper discusses possible reserve management approaches in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). The paper looks beyond the region’s current oil crisis and proposes a new approach to international reserve management in the medium term.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses the common policies adopted by the members of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). The macroeconomic performance was good in 2011 with improved fiscal balances, public investment programs, and higher reserves. However, CEMAC is facing challenges from deep-seated structural problems, including uncoordinated fiscal policy, financial sector weaknesses, and obstacles to growth and competitiveness. The Executive Board recommends monetary policies for financial stability and suggest making monetary policies an efficient tool of macroeconomic management. Also, the Board recommends strengthening of governance of CEMAC’s common institutions.
Mr. Oral Williams and Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji
The stance of fiscal policy in CEMAC and WAEMU is strongly influenced by fiscal effort in the previous period. This persistence underscores the risks of a procyclical fiscal policy stance, given these countries' high degree of dependence on primary commodities and exposure to terms of trade shocks. This paper finds that the coefficient of the lagged debt stock was significant and positive, consistent with the theory that higher levels of debt warrant greater fiscal effort. Various measures of economic performance, as captured by economic growth and per capita GDP, openness, and the terms of trade were also found to be important factors in explaining fiscal performance. As fiscal performance seems to be strongly affected by both real GDP growth and terms of trade fluctuations, there appears to be a need to develop supplementary fiscal-related criteria that take into account the influence of output and the terms of trade.
Mr. Oscar E Melhado Orellana
This paper reviews forestry reform in the Congo basin, focusing on Gabon. It argues that the key challenge for the Congo basin countries is to manage their forests in a sustainable manner. It presents the current situation of forestry taxation and forestry reform in Gabon. The paper analyzes optimal taxation in the forestry sector using a static model. The model works from the proposition that tax policy should be used exclusively for revenue purposes and resource preservation should be achieved mainly through legislation and enforcement. It argues that when prices are uncertain the best practice is to tax only profits.
International Monetary Fund
Macroeconomic developments benefited from oil windfalls, but structural problems still impede non-oil growth. Fiscal and external balances improved in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) because of the surge in oil prices and better fiscal management. Oil-related reserve inflows also helped accelerate regional broad money, leading to somewhat higher inflation and a small further appreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER). Macroeconomic prospects for 2006 are positive, despite persistent structural challenges. Higher oil income offers CEMAC members economic opportunities but also challenges.
International Monetary Fund
The creation, in 1994, of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) customs union was a major step in the regional integration process in central Africa. The implementation of the agreed regime by the member countries, however, has remained unsatisfactory. A 2002–03 initiative to improve policy implementation has largely stalled. Several recent initiatives concerning external trade provide new challenges and opportunities for welfare-enhancing reforms. Although the 1994 reforms that created the CEMAC customs union were a major step forward, the trade regime remains plagued by poor implementation.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) reviews the evolution of actual and equilibrium real effective exchange rates (REER). The current level of the CEMAC REER is broadly in line with its long-term equilibrium value. The estimation approach herein is subject to certain limitations, some of which are inherent to the literature that tries to estimate the equilibrium REERs. Absolute statements about magnitudes of any possible misalignments should be avoided given the degree of model uncertainty; error bands around estimated equilibrium exchange rates may, in some cases, yield inconclusive results.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.