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Cover IMF Notes
Tackling the Global Food Crisis: Impact, Policy Response, and the Role of the IMF
Mr. Bjoern Rother, Mr. Sebastian Sosa, Mr. Daehaeng Kim, Mr. Lukas P Kohler, Ms. Gaelle Pierre, Naoya Kato, Majdi Debbich, Chiara Castrovillari, Khamza Sharifzoda, Ms. Elizabeth Van Heuvelen, Fabiana Machado, Celine Thevenot, Ms. Pritha Mitra, and Dominique Fayad
Russia’s war in Ukraine has exacerbated food insecurity that had already been on the rise for half a decade. Low-income countries are affected the most. This note suggests that the food and fertilizer price shock would add $9 billion in 2022 and 2023 to the import bills of the 48 most affected countries. The budgetary cost of protecting vulnerable households in these countries amounts to $5–7 billion. Strong and timely action on a global scale is needed to support vulnerable households through international humanitarian assistance and domestic fiscal measures; to maintain open trade; to enhance food production and distribution; and to invest in climate-resilient agriculture. The IMF has been stepping up its engagement to help tackle the global food crisis, working closely with partners, by providing policy advice, capacity building and financing. IMF financing is a third line of defense in meeting external financing needs associated with the global food shock, which should ideally be covered by donor grants and concessional borrowing from MDBs. A new food shock window under the emergency financing instruments is expected to be approved soon to further strengthen its lending response to the food crisis.
Keywords:
Food insecurity; Russia’s war in Ukraine; global inflation; terms of trade shock; international cooperation; open trade; vulnerable households; agricultural production; IMF lending; IMF policy advice; capacity development
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa is still contending with an unprecedented health and economic crisis. In the months since the October 2020 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, the region has confronted a second coronavirus (COVID-19) wave that swiftly outpaced the scale and speed of the first. While this episode has eased for now, many countries are bracing for further waves, particularly as access to vaccines remains scant.

Keywords:
COVID-19; digitalization; sub-Saharan Africa; pandemic; economic recovery; health
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa is still contending with an unprecedented health and economic crisis. In the months since the October 2020 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, the region has confronted a second coronavirus (COVID-19) wave that swiftly outpaced the scale and speed of the first. While this episode has eased for now, many countries are bracing for further waves, particularly as access to vaccines remains scant.

Keywords:
COVID-19; digitalization; sub-Saharan Africa; pandemic; economic recovery; health
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa
Navigating a Long Pandemic
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa is still contending with an unprecedented health and economic crisis. In the months since the October 2020 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, the region has confronted a second coronavirus (COVID-19) wave that swiftly outpaced the scale and speed of the first. While this episode has eased for now, many countries are bracing for further waves, particularly as access to vaccines remains scant.

Keywords:
COVID-19; digitalization; sub-Saharan Africa; pandemic; economic recovery; health
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

A year into the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the race between vaccine and virus entered a new phase in the Middle East and Central Asia, and the path to recovery in 2021 is expected to be long and divergent. The outlook will vary significantly across countries, depending on the pandemic’s path, vaccine rollouts, underlying fragilities, exposure to tourism and contact-intensive sectors, and policy space and actions. 2021 will be the year of policies that continue saving lives and livelihoods and promote recovery, while balancing the need for debt sustainability and financial resilience. At the same time, policymakers must not lose sight of the transformational challenges to build forward better and accelerate the creation of more inclusive, resilient, sustainable, and green economies. Regional and international cooperation will be key complements to strong domestic policies.

Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemic; recovery; financial crisis; public health; lockdown; social distancing
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

A year into the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the race between vaccine and virus entered a new phase in the Middle East and Central Asia, and the path to recovery in 2021 is expected to be long and divergent. The outlook will vary significantly across countries, depending on the pandemic’s path, vaccine rollouts, underlying fragilities, exposure to tourism and contact-intensive sectors, and policy space and actions. 2021 will be the year of policies that continue saving lives and livelihoods and promote recovery, while balancing the need for debt sustainability and financial resilience. At the same time, policymakers must not lose sight of the transformational challenges to build forward better and accelerate the creation of more inclusive, resilient, sustainable, and green economies. Regional and international cooperation will be key complements to strong domestic policies.

Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemic; recovery; financial crisis; public health; lockdown; social distancing
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

A year into the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the race between vaccine and virus entered a new phase in the Middle East and Central Asia, and the path to recovery in 2021 is expected to be long and divergent. The outlook will vary significantly across countries, depending on the pandemic’s path, vaccine rollouts, underlying fragilities, exposure to tourism and contact-intensive sectors, and policy space and actions. 2021 will be the year of policies that continue saving lives and livelihoods and promote recovery, while balancing the need for debt sustainability and financial resilience. At the same time, policymakers must not lose sight of the transformational challenges to build forward better and accelerate the creation of more inclusive, resilient, sustainable, and green economies. Regional and international cooperation will be key complements to strong domestic policies.

Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemic; recovery; financial crisis; public health; lockdown; social distancing; IMF staff calculation; net bank financing; financing risk; financing constraint; policy space constraint; Oil; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Government debt planning; Oil prices; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Guyana: Housing Market and Implications for Macroprudential Policies
Mr. Julian T Chow
Guyana’s residential real estate prices have been rising, particularly in the capital city Georgetown, following the discovery of oil in 2015. In line with the growing demand for housing, commercial banks’ housing loans have increased, prompting higher household debt. This paper presents two analyses which suggest that housing prices in Georgetown and banks’ lending to the housing sector appear to be in their early stages of growth. However, given the data limitations and caveats that underpin the analyses, the findings could also indicate early signals of possible risks. Further data collection would support surveillance and deeper studies. At the same time, enhancing prudential measures would help safeguard financial and macroeconomic stability. These include strengthening the monitoring of the housing market, bank lending practices and household debt, as well as fortifying the macroprudential framework, including with more effective toolkits for early intervention.
Keywords:
WP; housing market; mortgage; lending; consumer price index; housing loan; Guyana; macroprudential policies; macroeco-financial stability; lending practice; sector risk; mortgage lending; housing Index; softening housing market; Housing prices; Housing; Real estate prices; Mortgages; Loans
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Underground Economy: Estimation, and Economic and Policy Implications: The Case of Pakistan
Mr. Ghiath Shabsigh
This paper estimates the size of the underground economy in Pakistan and analyzes its impact on Government fiscal position and the allocation of economic resources in the national economy. The results suggest that there is a mutual dependency between the size of the underground economy and fiscal deficits, and show a leakage from the national income-expenditure cycle in the formal economy to the underground economy via private investments. Finally, the paper proposes long- and short-run policies to reduce the size of the underground economy.
Keywords:
WP; GDP deflator; deficit-UE cycle; integration equation; formal GDP; D ratio; import UEA; currency demand; causality equation; Private investment; Budget planning and preparation; Currencies; Income; Government debt management
Cover IMF Working Papers
Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Futures Prices
Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar
This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared with that of forecasts using alternative techniques, including time series and econometric models, as well as judgemental forecasts. The paper also explores the predictive power of futures prices by comparing the forecasting accuracy of end-of-month prices with weekly and monthly averages, using a variety of different weighting schemes. Finally, the paper investigates whether the forecasts from using futures prices can be improved by incorporating information from other forecasting techniques.
Keywords:
WP; time series; random walk; moving average; forecasting accuracy; crude oil; oil futures prices; settlement price; futures prices accuracy; gasoline futures; price of futures contracts; crude oil price; WTI price; transactions price; futures price forecast; end-of-the-month price; Futures; Oil; Oil prices; Futures markets; Econometric models