Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Type

Refine By Countries

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Browse

You are looking at 1 - 1 of 1 items for :

  • Economic theory and methods x
  • Industry and industrial studies x
  • Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes x
  • Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications x
  • Foreign Exchange x
  • Economic forecasting x
  • Industries: Hospital,Travel and Tourism x
  • National accounts x
  • Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics x
  • Economic sectors x
Clear All
Cover IMF Working Papers
Where Should We Go? Internet Searches and Tourist Arrivals
Mr. Serhan Cevik
The widespread availability of internet search data is a new source of high-frequency information that can potentially improve the precision of macroeconomic forecasting, especially in areas with data constraints. This paper investigates whether travel-related online search queries enhance accuracy in the forecasting of tourist arrivals to The Bahamas from the U.S. The results indicate that the forecast model incorporating internet search data provides additional information about tourist flows over a univariate approach using the traditional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and multivariate models with macroeconomic indicators. The Google Trends-augmented model improves predictability of tourist arrivals by about 30 percent compared to the benchmark ARIMA model and more than 20 percent compared to the model extended only with income and relative prices.
Keywords:
WP; search data; tourist arrival; Internet search process; Google Trends data; internet search volume; arrivals to The Bahamas; Personal income; Tourism; Real effective exchange rates; Caribbean; Forecasting; tourist arrivals; Google Trends; time-series models