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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The war in Ukraine has triggered a costly humanitarian crisis that demands a peaceful resolution. At the same time, economic damage from the conflict will contribute to a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022 and add to inflation. Fuel and food prices have increased rapidly, hitting vulnerable populations in low-income countries hardest. Global growth is projected to slow from an estimated 6.1 percent in 2021 to 3.6 percent in 2022 and 2023. This is 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower for 2022 and 2023 than projected in January. Beyond 2023, global growth is forecast to decline to about 3.3 percent over the medium term. War-induced commodity price increases and broadening price pressures have led to 2022 inflation projections of 5.7 percent in advanced economies and 8.7 percent in emerging market and developing economies—1.8 and 2.8 percentage points higher than projected last January. Multilateral efforts to respond to the humanitarian crisis, prevent further economic fragmentation, maintain global liquidity, manage debt distress, tackle climate change, and end the pandemic are essential.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The war in Ukraine has triggered a costly humanitarian crisis that demands a peaceful resolution. At the same time, economic damage from the conflict will contribute to a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022 and add to inflation. Fuel and food prices have increased rapidly, hitting vulnerable populations in low-income countries hardest. Global growth is projected to slow from an estimated 6.1 percent in 2021 to 3.6 percent in 2022 and 2023. This is 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower for 2022 and 2023 than projected in January. Beyond 2023, global growth is forecast to decline to about 3.3 percent over the medium term. War-induced commodity price increases and broadening price pressures have led to 2022 inflation projections of 5.7 percent in advanced economies and 8.7 percent in emerging market and developing economies—1.8 and 2.8 percentage points higher than projected last January. Multilateral efforts to respond to the humanitarian crisis, prevent further economic fragmentation, maintain global liquidity, manage debt distress, tackle climate change, and end the pandemic are essential.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The global economy enters 2022 in a weaker position than previously expected. The COVID-19 Omicron variant has prompted new mobility restrictions, energy price increases and supply disruptions have spurred inflation more than anticipated, and the ongoing retrenchment of China’s real estate sector and slower-than-expected private consumption have all been drags on global growth, The global economy enters 2022 in a weaker position than previously expected, with global growth forecast at 4.4 percent in 2022, half a percentage point slower than anticipated last October which is expected to moderate from 5.9 in 2021 to 4.4 percent in 2022—half a percentage point lower for 2022 than forecasted in October. The current forecast is predicated on improved vaccination rates and therapies worldwide by end-2022. The risks to this baseline forecast, however, tilt downward due to continued uncertainty in a number of areas, including the possibility of new COVID variants, prospects for a sudden tightening of financial conditions if inflation turns out higher than expected and monetary policy support in advanced economies is withdrawn faster than anticipated, geopolitical tensions, and the ongoing climate emergency.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The global economy enters 2022 in a weaker position than previously expected. The COVID-19 Omicron variant has prompted new mobility restrictions, energy price increases and supply disruptions have spurred inflation more than anticipated, and the ongoing retrenchment of China’s real estate sector and slower-than-expected private consumption have all been drags on global growth, The global economy enters 2022 in a weaker position than previously expected, with global growth forecast at 4.4 percent in 2022, half a percentage point slower than anticipated last October which is expected to moderate from 5.9 in 2021 to 4.4 percent in 2022—half a percentage point lower for 2022 than forecasted in October. The current forecast is predicated on improved vaccination rates and therapies worldwide by end-2022. The risks to this baseline forecast, however, tilt downward due to continued uncertainty in a number of areas, including the possibility of new COVID variants, prospects for a sudden tightening of financial conditions if inflation turns out higher than expected and monetary policy support in advanced economies is withdrawn faster than anticipated, geopolitical tensions, and the ongoing climate emergency.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Para la economía mundial, el año 2022 arranca en condiciones más débiles de lo esperado. A medida que avanza la nueva variante ómicron del virus que provoca la COVID-19, los países han vuelto a instituir restricciones a la movilidad. A raíz del encarecimiento de la energía y de los trastornos en el suministro, la inflación es más alta y más generalizada de lo previsto, sobre todo en Estados Unidos y en numerosas economías de mercados emergentes y en desarrollo. Además, la contracción que está experimentando el sector inmobiliario de China y la lentitud imprevista de la recuperación del consumo privado han limitado las perspectivas de crecimiento.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

L’économie mondiale aborde 2022 dans une position plus faible que prévu. Alors que se répand le nouveau variant de COVID-19, Omicron, les pays restreignent à nouveau les déplacements. Du fait de l’augmentation du prix de l’énergie et des ruptures d’approvisionnement, l’inflation est plus élevée et plus généralisée que prévu, en particulier aux États-Unis et dans de nombreux pays émergents et en développement. Les perspectives de croissance ont aussi été assombries par le repli du secteur immobilier chinois et la reprise plus lente que prévu de la consommation privée.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The global economy enters 2022 in a weaker position than previously expected. The COVID-19 Omicron variant has prompted new mobility restrictions, energy price increases and supply disruptions have spurred inflation more than anticipated, and the ongoing retrenchment of China’s real estate sector and slower-than-expected private consumption have all been drags on global growth, The global economy enters 2022 in a weaker position than previously expected, with global growth forecast at 4.4 percent in 2022, half a percentage point slower than anticipated last October which is expected to moderate from 5.9 in 2021 to 4.4 percent in 2022—half a percentage point lower for 2022 than forecasted in October. The current forecast is predicated on improved vaccination rates and therapies worldwide by end-2022. The risks to this baseline forecast, however, tilt downward due to continued uncertainty in a number of areas, including the possibility of new COVID variants, prospects for a sudden tightening of financial conditions if inflation turns out higher than expected and monetary policy support in advanced economies is withdrawn faster than anticipated, geopolitical tensions, and the ongoing climate emergency.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Chapter 2 and 3 were released on October 6, 2021. The links are accessible below.