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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The economy is recovering from the shocks of civil unrest in November 2021 and a local outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2022, driven by increasing activity after the reopening of the border and preparation for the 2023 Pacific Games. But the recovery has been fragile, as Russia’s war in Ukraine has led to a decline in the terms of trade and rising inflation. A large pipeline of infrastructure projects financed by concessional borrowing is expected to support medium-term growth and help reduce a large infrastructure gap. But the country’s external position is projected to significantly weaken because of these projects and declining log exports, with reserve coverage declining as a result. This outlook highlights the pressing needs for reform to improve public investment management, as well as to diversify the economy and enhance its competitiveness.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Outlook and Risks. Economic activity is projected to moderate after a strong recovery from the pandemic. After growing by 15 percent in 2021 and 12 percent in 2022, real GDP is projected to grow by 2.4 percent in 2023 and 2.0 percent over the medium term as spare capacity is exhausted. Revenue growth and fiscal consolidation have increased the primary balance to 1.2 percent of GDP from FY2022 onwards, which is projected to reduce public debt from 64 percent of GDP in 2022 to 53 percent in 2028. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including a sharp slowdown in advanced economies, further increases in commodity prices, and climate-related disasters.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
At the request of the CBTT, a TA mission on strengthening cybersecurity in financial institutions was delivered during the period October 31–November 4, 2022. The Governor requested the TA during the 2022 Spring Meetings and the deliverables for the mission and the milestones were identified by having a dialogue with the authority. The mission had two objectives: (i) to strengthen the cybersecurity of the financial institutions under the supervisory ambit of CBTT and (ii) to improve the cybersecurity stance of the CBTT. For the project for strengthening cybersecurity of the Central Bank an internal project team has been constituted. For strengthening cybersecurity of financial institutions, the CBTT has established a working group comprising all the financial regulators (namely, the CBTT, Trinidad and Tobago Securities and Exchange Commission (TTSEC), the Financial Intelligence Unit of Trinidad and Tobago (FIUTT), and the Office of the Commission of Cooperative Development (CCD) to draft a cybersecurity guideline for financial institutions and a supervisory manual.
Ms. Asmaa A ElGanainy
,
Shushanik Hakobyan
,
Fei Liu
,
Hans Weisfeld
,
S. M. Ali Abbas
,
Céline Allard
,
Hippolyte W. Balima
,
Celine Bteish
,
Rahul Giri
,
Mr. Daniel S Kanda
,
Sergii Meleshchuk
,
Mr. Gustavo Ramirez
,
Robert Zymek
,
Mr. Vivek B. Arora
,
Mr. Subir Lall
,
Benjamin R Kett
, and
Miss Megan M Pohl
Il s'agit d'un résumé exécutif. Veuillez télécharger le PDF.
Ms. Asmaa A ElGanainy
,
Shushanik Hakobyan
,
Fei Liu
,
Hans Weisfeld
,
S. M. Ali Abbas
,
Céline Allard
,
Hippolyte W. Balima
,
Celine Bteish
,
Rahul Giri
,
Mr. Daniel S Kanda
,
Benjamin R Kett
,
Sergii Meleshchuk
,
Miss Megan M Pohl
,
Mr. Gustavo Ramirez
,
Robert Zymek
,
Mr. Vivek B. Arora
, and
Mr. Subir Lall
Since the 1960s, several initiatives have been undertaken to enhance trade integration in Africa. However, substantial tariff and nontariff barriers remain in place. In recent years, African leaders have shown a renewed push for regional integration by signing the agreement on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The AfCFTA has the potential to transform regional trade and thereby lift growth and support livelihoods across the continent. This paper lays out the benefits that successful AfCFTA implementation could unlock for Africa in terms of income, jobs, and other benefits. It is based on an empirical analysis of the obstacles to trade in goods and services and regional value chain integration along with a discussion of how regional trade integration and supporting policies could help African countries cope with ongoing global and domestic trends. The empirical analysis investigates the role of trade policy and the broader trade-enabling environment in determining the bilateral goods trade flows and country-level trade in services. It sheds light on how the implementation of AfCFTA and supporting policies could boost trade and income as well as help African countries integrate into regional value chains. The findings suggest that plausible reductions in tariffs and nontariff barriers under AfCFTA, along with improvements in broader trade-enabling environment (trade infrastructure, financial development, and domestic security), would substantially boost intra-African trade in goods and services, and support integration into regional value chains. Further, regional trade integration could be an important element of a strategy for African countries to cope with rapid population growth, climate change, and emerging geopolitical fragmentation.