International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
KEY ISSUES Outlook and risks. The outlook remains challenging from both a cyclical and structural standpoint. The hoped-for output recovery has not materialized—domestic demand remains sluggish and inflation low and external uncertainties have increased. More fundamentally, relatively weak non-manufacturing productivity has been accompanied by a heavy, and likely unsustainable, reliance on manufacturing exports for growth while also leaving the economy more exposed to external shocks, and the demographic headwinds from a rapidly aging population are beginning to build. Policy assessment. Building on the authorities’ recent monetary, fiscal, and other policy measures to stimulate demand, efforts should remain focused on shoring up economic momentum where the currently weak outlook could have a lasting impact on Korea’s growth well beyond the near term. Given asymmetric costs of the downside risk of low growth and inflation becoming entrenched the authorities should take additional pre- emptive stimulatory monetary and fiscal policy actions if clear signs of a recovery do not emerge soon. At the same time sustaining longer-term growth and reducing external imbalances call for structural reforms to address low service sector productivity, support a more dynamic corporate and SME sector, and remove barriers that lead to underutilized labor. Maintaining a flexible exchange rate is essential both as a buffer against external shocks and to facilitate adjustment toward domestic sources of growth and thereby reduce external imbalances.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Democratic Republic of the Congo's macroeconomic performance remained strong through the first half of 2015 despite a difficult external and domestic environment. Real GDP growth in 2014 is estimated at 9.2 percent, driven by copper production and the service sector. The medium-term outlook is favorable but subject to downside risks. Real GDP growth is projected to remain strong at 9.2 percent in 2015-among the highest rates in the world-and average 8.4 percent in 2016-17 before stabilizing at about 6 percent in 2018-20.
This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that from 1999 to 2002, Korea’s economy grew rapidly, by an average of 7¼ percent per year. But starting in 2003, the economy has begun to sputter. Growth suddenly stopped in the first half of the year, leapt ahead in the second half as exports boomed, but then slowed again to an anemic 2¾ percent annualized rate during January–September 2004 as exports decelerated. The authorities have been countering this slowdown by easing macroeconomic policies. The fiscal policy stance has been shifted from neutral to mildly expansionary.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.